How do drop rates work?
Freddy406
Registered Users 260 Posts
How come some people get wings on second try and then ppl like me don't even get wings at 3000 tries? I am sure there is a way to get better chances. Could I know how drop rates and iif work Moloch or any glu workers? Ex: Killing bosses in a really short time rather than long time increases your chances and etc. All I want to know is: What affects drop rates for wings or legendary equipment? If someone can answer me with real and precise information, you have made my day.
0
Comments
Toss in much lower % chance and more items making chances rare but any time he dies you can get said item just luck of the random numbers...
IIF reduces the amount of whites and greens you get, and increases the likelihood of blues, purples and golds dropping. It does not effect how often items drops. In certain corner cases, it can effect how many items you get when a mob does drop.
If you want me to get super technical, I can explain exactly how the statistics of drop rates work (not just in our game, but almost all games). The TL;DR of it though is that there is no way to guarantee an event happens in any random probability based situation.
Thank you.
Ok, could you tell me more about these statistics? Also, does time affect the drops? Are there any more things like it that could affect the drops?
No, you couldn't, because no fraud is being perpetrated. You should consider looking up the words you use, because you use many of them incorrectly.
THIS IS ALL AN EXAMPLE, THESE ARE NOT ACTUAL DROP RATES
I'm going to preface this with saying that statistics is hard, confusing and very counter intuitive. I'll start basic so hopefully anyone who reads it can understand it, and work up, but this is a crash course. If you do want to learn it in depth (and have it explained waaaaaaaaay better than I can), I highly suggest checking out Khan Academy. For a direct link to the stats modules, check this link https://www.khanacademy.org/math/probability. For completeness, here is a link to the wiki page on it as well, but it uses some fairly advanced mathematical notation, so it can be rather confusing: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_(probability_theory)
I'll use a common 6-sided die to demonstrate this. What's the chance you will roll a given number? Let's say a 4. The chance is 1/6. This can be rephrased as saying there is a 5/6 chance you will not roll a 4.
Let's tie this to EW3. Let's say LHB's drop table only had 6 items, and each time you killed him he could only drop one of them, and the probability of the drop was evenly distributed. He has 2 white, 1 green, 1 blue, 1 purples and 1 gold. You want the gold item. What's the chance of getting the gold? 1/6.
Now the question you want the answer to is "how many times do I need to kill LHB before he drops the gold item"? You might think the answer is 6, but that would be incorrect. The technical answer is "infinite", because there is no guarantee that the event will ever happen. Fortunately, the chance of that happening is very small. In this situation, 50% of people will get the item they want by the 4th drop, and 90% of people will get it by the 13th drop.
So, the way that you calculate the chance of something is by calculating the chance of it not happening (yes, this is weird). The full formula is:
1 - (1 - (drop chance)) ^ (amount of attempts) = probability of item we want dropping
So if there is a 1/6 chance, and we do it 4 times we get:
1 - (1 - (1/6)) ^ (4) =>
1 - (5/6) ^ (4) =>
1 - 0.482253 =>
0.517747
In probability, numbers range from 1 (100%) to 0 (0%). So 4 attempts gets you a ~50% chance of the item dropping for you. About 16% of people will get it on the first try, and 90% of people will get it by the 13th try.
What IIF does, is skew the probability in your favor, by increasing the chance of good items dropping. Having a higher IIF effects this more. Using the above example, LBH's drop table goes like this:
0% IIF
2 white, 1 green, 1 blue, 1 purple and 1 gold
300% IIF
0.5 white, 0.5 green, 2 blue, 1.5 purple and 1.5 gold
In our example, you now only need 3 kills to get a 50% chance, and 8 kills for a 90% chance. That's ~40% less attempts needed.
And yes, this is why if your IIF is very high, you rarely get white and green evo mats.
THIS IS ALL AN EXAMPLE, THESE ARE NOT ACTUAL DROP RATES
*right meaning in the direction of gold items
Some players have already done drop rate studies. The shift is substantial : ) What we are mostly witnessing when it comes to complaints about drop rates (ignoring the actual bugs like the reagent drop bug which was fixed) is large degrees of perception bias, and probably some people having unfortunate outliers. My studies of the data sets show IIF working as designed, and increasing probability of getting a gold by large amounts. There are however no items that can increase the chance you get the exact item you want. As tends to be the case in these situations, the more of a set you complete, the lower the chance of getting the next piece in the set you want since we use a full independent event system in our design.
This finally prompted me to register here.
Moloch, does this mean if I have an unbreakable resolve set but missing the boots that the only the unbreakable resolve boots are harder to find, or is my chance for any gold item reduced with the more gold items I'm holding?
I have been working on building two unbreakable resolve sets gearing one to fight fire, and one for ice. I've done many runs in tower up to 125 or so, with no godly drops but did get a pair of wondrous resolve helms. Time between token refills spent spamming LHB, haven't seen much in the way of gold drops from him aside from the odd shard here and there.
Mainly wondering if saving extra wondrous/unbreakable armor is affecting my chances for godly...
Off topic, I've been a reader of this forum for months. Your words (and those of gluadmin) are appreciated, particularly when you touch on the mechanics of the game or provide a heads-up of upcoming content.
Class: Warrior, 12591 GS
Status: Uninstalled game and retired... gave up on Glu.
what i dont get is how does 300% increase in IIF would change the proportion of white, green, blue, purple and gold.
A 300% increase in IIF to me means that the proportion of the rarer items will changed by a multiple of 4. For instance, blue, purple and gold would change from 1 to 4 and the new distribution would be:
2 white, 1 green, 4 blue, 4 purple and 4 gold
Can you explain more (using a formula) on how IIF will affect the proportion of the items?
You're right. There is no fraud.
But if you give out percentages drop rates. Like, say, if you say ONI general drop weapon at a 0.1% drop rate, I could investigate it and sue you for false advertising. Same thing with gold offerings. You guys list a bunch of cool stuff, but also put the mystery item so it's not illegal. It's just lowly and pathetic.
He clearly said full independent event system, it doesn't matter if you're inventory is full of gold items, drop rates are always the same.
What he meant was this:
Lets assume you are looking for a specific set which is dropped by a single monster, the pool of items this monster drops is 20, 5 of those 20 items belong to the set you are looking for. Lets also assume, all 20 items have the same chance to be dropped (1/20).
Since you don't have any set piece, the chance for you to acquire a piece you don't have is 5/20.
When you get the first piece, the chance for you to acquire a piece you don't have is 4/20.
When you get the second piece, the chance for you to acquire a piece you don't have is 3/20.
When you get the third piece, the chance for you to acquire a piece you don't have is 2/20.
When you get the fourth piece, the chance for you to acquire a piece you don't have is 1/20.
As you can see, the drop rate for the items is exactly the same in each event, BUT, the chance of getting the specific items you're missing from a set are reduced the more pieces from that particular set you acquire.
Precisely. This is an excellent explanation
Which is why I was looking for clarification, maybe I was the only one that saw multiple ways to interpret other parts of his post.
Class: Warrior, 12591 GS
Status: Uninstalled game and retired... gave up on Glu.
Class: Warrior, 12591 GS
Status: Uninstalled game and retired... gave up on Glu.
You should be able to justify it. Start saving up gold, too. Fusion tourneys will come.
Of course I wouldn't want multiple sets if it was free to remove runes from armor... but that's a different story.
Class: Warrior, 12591 GS
Status: Uninstalled game and retired... gave up on Glu.
Not in this game, but I use to play a game with my friend that attack has hit chance.
I have 95% hit chance, and my friend has only 5%.
I miss, and my friend hit with cri and 1 hit kill me -*-
So after that, the number on chance is meaning less for me, it just possible or impossible :P
This is also one of those funny little areas of information theory/stats where you run into the problem of all events getting reduced to a binary state. It either happens, or it doesn't. We live in a strange world.
Or it exists in both states. =P
Class: Warrior, 12591 GS
Status: Uninstalled game and retired... gave up on Glu.
Formally speaking, this only happens when you completely lack information about the system. In such cases, the only sensitive choice is to assign equal probabilities for all possible outcomes. This is exactly the case of the roll of a dice. We completely ignore the detailed physics governing its movement and simply say that we are ignorant about it, therefore the outcomes are random and equiprobable. Fortunately, we are not completely ignorant about the dropping rates, VoidBlader. ;D
There is an interpretation of Quantum Mechanics that says when you perform a measurement, you create isolated Universes for each outcome to happen. So, if we were completely ignorant about the dropping rates we could say that whenever you kill an Oni General Boss and look up the droppings (this is the measurement) with no lvl 44 legendary weapon in it (sad, i know
**** my other me, and **** his ****ing oni blade, I want to be the "other me" :P
I have never played a mmorpg in which time was an important factor in the droppings.
It has actually played a role in a few that I'm aware of. Off the top of my head, both EQ and FFXI had it effect things.