A word/rant on player box odds and Twitter giveaway

Babybombers9Babybombers9 Registered Users, Member 212 Posts
I've seen a lot of posts here about awesome pulls people have had. And I'm happy for those folks. It's kind of like the lottery though...you only hear about the winners lol. I just wanted to make a point that there's a whole separate group that I'm a part of. And I know I'm not alone! I'm in the group of people who have never actually pulled a top hitter from that "1%-4%" group that's actually worth building your team around. I have pulled a relief pitcher and starting pitcher in that group. But I think we would all agree that pitchers aren't why we play this game. Hitters are what make it fun.

I estimate I've opened 800-1000 of these boxes. Is it possible to go 0-fer? Yes. Highly improbable, though? ABSOLUTELY. Whether it's this week's Arrenado, any box with a Living Legend or just call it "a player I would love to have" it's just not something that I've ever experienced with this game. So "Fight or Flight" kicked in and I decided to make some Black Friday purchases, as well as a couple holiday buys. My friend who was playing this game went through the same thing. But he chose the flight option and stopped playing. Kind of a shame, and I feel it's avoidable. I'd like to throw out an idea how.

Now I cycle WOH regularly, albeit entirely on the backs of players I purchased. I enjoy it a lot and there's so many things I would say I love about the game. But I think it's important to point out that perhaps one way of improving the '19 version would be for Glu to keep track of who hasn't had luck on their side, and maybe throw them a bone once in a while for being a loyal player. Nothing crazy, but once or twice in a thousand tries doesn't seem like too much to ask.

I would extend this to the Twitter #FreeStuffFriday events where you're entered in to win boxes if you retweet. I've done that at least 20 times and never won. And many people point out that there are teams that win quite often. Many people believe that it's Glu employees scratching each other's backs. I'm certainly not saying that. In fact, I'd like to think that's not a thing. But my point is, many people complain in the comments section that the boxes and the Twitter giveaway are rigged. And I would respectfully say none of the situations I've described here do anything to prove them wrong.

Comments

  • LonzoBallinLonzoBallin Registered Users, Member 636 Posts
    There is definitely something weird going on with the Twitter giveaways.  My guess is that GLU includes people who don't follow the rules (i.e. people who don't retweet but just comment, and people who don't retweet but make a new post instead).  My reason for this is because my club usually accounts for about a dozen entries, and the total number of retweets is usually around the 300 mark.  That means my club accounts for about 4% of all entries, and usually about 15-30% of the participants are selected as winners.  Mathematically speaking, based on these numbers, my club should have a winner almost every giveaway.  However, the truth of what has happened is that my club almost never wins.  I have personally entered every single twitter contest this season, and I have never won.  That puts myself and most of my club members at about 0 for 35 on something with stated odds of somewhere between 15-30%.  As you stated above, the numbers are not adding up.
    Proud TSB VIP!
  • BigpredfanBigpredfan New Member Registered Users 3,306 Posts
    There is definitely something weird going on with the Twitter giveaways.  My guess is that GLU includes people who don't follow the rules (i.e. people who don't retweet but just comment, and people who don't retweet but make a new post instead).  My reason for this is because my club usually accounts for about a dozen entries, and the total number of retweets is usually around the 300 mark.  That means my club accounts for about 4% of all entries, and usually about 15-30% of the participants are selected as winners.  Mathematically speaking, based on these numbers, my club should have a winner almost every giveaway.  However, the truth of what has happened is that my club almost never wins.  I have personally entered every single twitter contest this season, and I have never won.  That puts myself and most of my club members at about 0 for 35 on something with stated odds of somewhere between 15-30%.  As you stated above, the numbers are not adding up.
    Retweet with comment counts, but not in the simple retweet numbers.  I always retweet with comment, add my name and the dumb hashtag, and I win every now and then (maybe 2-3 times this year)
  • JEDDDOGGYJEDDDOGGY Registered Users, Member 2,425 Posts
    I am experiencing what seems to be a very strange thing with box odds, myself.

    Since Black Friday I have cycled WOH approximately 225 times. I have only gotten a couple of legends, and it’s only the lower level ones like Gossage, Baines, etc. Regardless of what the odds are, I’m getting the shaft hard with a pretty large sample size.

    However, with purchased boxes lately I am pulling guys like no other. I got holiday Pesky on a single box, got holiday McGriff after opening 5 boxes, got CvC Ted last weekend opening 4 boxes, and got LL Arenado this weekend after opening 8 boxes. Oh, and I pulled Mantle from the VIP gift.

    Something screwy is going on for sure.
  • ReclinerRecliner Registered Users, Member 114 Posts
    I’ve entered in every twitter giveaway and have never won
  • DFBBDFBB Registered Users, Moderators, Member, Moderator 6,588 Posts
    I'm a big advocate of the pity timer, which works similarly to what OP wants. As far as the FSF? People cheat...yup, even there. :(
    If you're not having fun, you're losing.
  • BigpredfanBigpredfan New Member Registered Users 3,306 Posts
    DFBB said:
    I'm a big advocate of the pity timer, which works similarly to what OP wants. As far as the FSF? People cheat...yup, even there. :(
    You don’t mean to tell me people enter that contest more than one time do you......  
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