fix item upgrade chance!!

boivjet · July 2013

I received the orange tier 6 weapon for my tank a while ago but still haven't been able to use it because I cant upgrade it to at least level 9 (dammage from my blue weapon is still higher). I have seriously tried almost 40 times now with no luck. Right now it says there is a 10% chance to upgrade which is total BS. Fix the chance code so items can actually be upgraded

Crovack · July 2013

I've seen similar issues with tier 7+ items. The listed percentages do not match my experience. My data, from 92 upgrade attempts of tier 7 and higher show the success rate as being 1.3 standard deviations below predicted prevents. This data set isn't large enough to be conclusive, but it shows a disturbing trend (in either the programming or my luck).

Best solution could simply be to have items go up in partial levels (example 7.0 -> 7.1). The stats would remain the same but for each failure attempt you'd gain a permanent +10% upgrade chance. Thus a tier 0.1 item would have a base (99%) plus bonus (+10%) chance, meaning your second attempt at a level 0 item would always succeed. For a level 9 item, after 9 failures (@level 9.9) you'd have a base (10%) plus bonus (+90%) and thus have a guaranteed success. This would allow players to always feel like they're making progress, as even failures gain you some ground towards your next level. Whenever successful you'd reset your bonus (example: a success from leveling 2.3 to tier 3 will result in tier 3.0 and all bonus is lost).

As this idea would, statistically, reduce costs for upgrades there could be a necessary increase to the gem costs of each attempt to compensate. This increase wouldn't be huge and ideally would leave the average cost similar, however the proposal would reduce outliers (those with awful luck) from being miserable as a result.

Eziekial · July 2013

Crovack wrote: »

I've seen similar issues with tier 7+ items. The listed percentages do not match my experience. My data, from 92 upgrade attempts of tier 7 and higher show the success rate as being 1.3 standard deviations below predicted prevents. This data set isn't large enough to be conclusive, but it shows a disturbing trend (in either the programming or my luck).

Best solution could simply be to have items go up in partial levels (example 7.0 -> 7.1). The stats would remain the same but for each failure attempt you'd gain a permanent +10% upgrade chance. Thus a tier 0.1 item would have a base (99%) plus bonus (+10%) chance, meaning your second attempt at a level 0 item would always succeed. For a level 9 item, after 9 failures (@level 9.9) you'd have a base (10%) plus bonus (+90%) and thus have a guaranteed success. This would allow players to always feel like they're making progress, as even failures gain you some ground towards your next level. Whenever successful you'd reset your bonus (example: a success from leveling 2.3 to tier 3 will result in tier 3.0 and all bonus is lost).

As this idea would, statistically, reduce costs for upgrades there could be a necessary increase to the gem costs of each attempt to compensate. This increase wouldn't be huge and ideally would leave the average cost similar, however the proposal would reduce outliers (those with awful luck) from being miserable as a result.

Applause!!!

I have the same results with all epic or legendary items over level 8. I have tried at least 40-50 times on 3-4 different items and still can't get them to level 9 let alone lvl 10. I spend my time just farming heroic missions to get rungs and falling stars to just attempt to level items. With this as the only thing for me really left to do having the above system implemented would be awesome. Only change is that I think the current costs to upgrade are enough. As it is is you run out of materials very fast and the drop rate now in non heroic missions of emeralds and rubies are very slim and falling stars I have never seen in a non heroic mission after the patch.

COBOK · July 2013

Upgraded both 6th tier legendaries for Fel'Mor to 9 level without long "fail series". :rolleyes: The worst was upgrade of sword from 8 to 9: about 8 attempts.
It's random.

chrilion1@gmail.com · July 2013

http://ggnbb.glu.com/showthread.php?12961-Decimator-III-upgrade-borken

glenstark · August 2013

I noticed how difficult it is to obtain certain elements (like rubies). For some reason, the randomizer is not working properly when upgrading equipment. I tried to upgrade a piece of equipment with 20% success rate and it took over 20 tries. This happens more frequently than you think. Isn't 20% 1 out of 5 chances? For the amount of pain it takes to obtain these precious elements, this game is beginning to become quite frustrating. Perhaps there ought to be a way to purchase elements with all the extra silver I accumulated repeating missions countless times. After all, I have so much silver, I no longer have anything to purchase with it.:(

mthead · August 2013

glenstark wrote: »

I noticed how difficult it is to obtain certain elements (like rubies). For some reason, the randomizer is not working properly when upgrading equipment. I tried to upgrade a piece of equipment with 20% success rate and it took over 20 tries. This happens more frequently than you think. Isn't 20% 1 out of 5 chances? For the amount of pain it takes to obtain these precious elements, this game is beginning to become quite frustrating. Perhaps there ought to be a way to purchase elements with all the extra silver I accumulated repeating missions countless times. After all, I have so much silver, I no longer have anything to purchase with it.:(

you think thats bad you should try playing the mystery chest.. then times it by 3 different type of character class and you get frustration x3 trying to get that legendary item.. sitting here thinking should i spin for more legendary item or just upgrade my epic weapon instead of legendary

Renwu · August 2013

That's a fast way to burn Glus, and money, if you buy them Glus...

LilDagnamet · August 2013

You do know that, for example, if it says the upgrade it has a 10% chance of being successful that that means that each time you try to upgrade it you have a 90% of it failing to upgrade and that translates to every attempt. It is not try it 10 times and it will work on the tenth time. Here is a way to look at it, they use a random number generator to spit out a number between 1-10, you have 10% chance, and if that generator spits out a 1 your upgrade is successful but if it spits out a 2-10 your upgrade fails. So far the chances haven't been in your favour.

rewand · August 2013

I have run the level 2 upgrade EIGHT TIMES IN A ROW AND FAILED EVERY TIME. The engine is very suspect.

LilDagnamet · September 2013

At level 2 you have a 80-90% chance of success, so that means a 10-20% chance of failure. Read my previous post. It is more likely that you were just unlucky with the percentages.

chinoka · September 2013

Luck is involved but i've tried upgrading things with 40% change and failed over 15+ times. It's like rolling a dice 15 times and never geting a 1. Possible, but unlikly. It doesn't happen with one upgrade either. Every upgrade takes more tryes thatthe one expected by chance. If you say that you have a 50% chance of doing something you really expect to happen in 2 o 3 tryes max. Its difficult to flip heads 3 times in a row. Yet again possible, but dificult. This means that if alot of people express that it takes 40 tries to upgrade something with 10% chance and only 1 says that it happend within the expexted range of tries, the something must be up.
Specially when they charge for upgrading...

LilDagnamet · September 2013

chinoka wrote: »

Luck is involved but i've tried upgrading things with 40% change and failed over 15+ times. It's like rolling a dice 15 times and never geting a 1. Possible, but unlikly. It doesn't happen with one upgrade either. Every upgrade takes more tryes thatthe one expected by chance. If you say that you have a 50% chance of doing something you really expect to happen in 2 o 3 tryes max. Its difficult to flip heads 3 times in a row. Yet again possible, but dificult. This means that if alot of people express that it takes 40 tries to upgrade something with 10% chance and only 1 says that it happend within the expexted range of tries, the something must be up.
Specially when they charge for upgrading...

Okay this seems like of talking for takings sake. You are talking about a 40% chance failing more then 15 time, oh gosh no! That still leaves you with a 60% chance of fail. Your upgrade could fail 100 times, 500 time, 1000 times before succeeding that is the power of % chance and not malicious or broken coding. As for your possible but unlikely comment that is possible and not so unlikely welcome to chance. Your chances do not get better the more times you. Finally your "they charge" comment, at 40% they are charging what 500-700 coin, that isn't very much.
e.x.
40% chance of upgrade being successful.
So say you have a 10 sided dice to get a successful upgrade you would have to roll a 1, 2, 3, or a 4. That leaves a 6, 7, 8, 9, or a 10 which would mean a failed upgrade

jacobbushong · September 2013

LilDagnamet wrote: »

Okay this seems like of talking for takings sake. You are talking about a 40% chance failing more then 15 time, oh gosh no! That still leaves you with a 60% chance of fail. Your upgrade could fail 100 times, 500 time, 1000 times before succeeding that is the power of % chance and not malicious or broken coding. As for your possible but unlikely comment that is possible and not so unlikely welcome to chance. Your chances do not get better the more times you. Finally your "they charge" comment, at 40% they are charging what 500-700 coin, that isn't very much.
e.x.
40% chance of upgrade being successful.
So say you have a 10 sided dice to get a successful upgrade you would have to roll a 1, 2, 3, or a 4. That leaves a 6, 7, 8, 9, or a 10 which would mean a failed upgrade

The chance of failing a 40% upgrade 15 times in a row is .00047, or .047% (About 1 in 2000 chance). Even so, after you fail 15 times, there is still a 60% chance you'll fail on the 16th try.

Conversely, the chance of failing a 10% upgrade 20 times in a row is 12.1% or about 1 in 8. So good luck getting any sympathy for that one.

I agree that if 10 people say it takes longer than expected and one says it's fine, then the 10 may be right. The only flaw in that logic is that happy people don't typically post results on the internet....

fix item upgrade chance!!

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