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Results of 57 number 1 picks
redbird
Registered Users 39 Posts
I had gold saved up to get trout so I was able to make 57 number 1 picks (some of them were trade ins). Kept track of the players I got as well as the number of stars each player had. I'll share the results below for anyone that cares to look. I seemed to get worse players when i traded in but I didn't keep track of that, i should have.
Total number 1 picks 57
Total 5 star players: 1 (Jose Abreu, At least I got a stud) (1.7%)
Total 4.5 star players:7 (12.3%)
Total 4 star players: 15 (26.3%)
total 3.5 star players: 17 (29.8%)
total 3 star players: 17 (29.8%)
Now what would be really interesting to me is someone has the percentages of overall players in the game. I'd be curious how they would match up to these percentages.
If anyone has any questions let me know.
Total number 1 picks 57
Total 5 star players: 1 (Jose Abreu, At least I got a stud) (1.7%)
Total 4.5 star players:7 (12.3%)
Total 4 star players: 15 (26.3%)
total 3.5 star players: 17 (29.8%)
total 3 star players: 17 (29.8%)
Now what would be really interesting to me is someone has the percentages of overall players in the game. I'd be curious how they would match up to these percentages.
If anyone has any questions let me know.
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Comments
I had a similar experience with the most recent Fan Rewards event, although I didn't keep the stats. In addition to two of the three players (Molina + Trout) offered in the fan rewards, I picked up three other players that made my team (thus a total of five new players):
Daniel Murphy, 2B, 4.5 stars...he replaced Howie Kendrick, 4 stars (not certain if Murphy will ultimately be an upgrade over Kendrick)
Michael Wacha, SP, 4.5 stars...he became SP3 for me (behind Kluber and Cobb)
Fernando Salas, RP, 4 stars...he assumed set-up role
adam lind 1b
sergio romo rp
neil ramirez rp
andrew cashner p
james paxton p
justin turner 3b
I should point out that pitching was my weakest area so not sure if thats why i got more pitchers or not
I think Romo is 7/8/8. He is pretty good.
If Glu doesn't skew the results of picks here is what I am estimating:
5-star = 71 players
4.5-star = 68 players
4-star = 116 players
3.5-star = 112 players
3-star = 165 players
2.5-star = 155 players
2-star = 193 players
1.5-star = 185 players
1-star = 274 players
#1 pick = 3-5 stars = 530 players
First round = 2-5 stars = 880 players
Second Round = 1.5-4 stars = 930 players
Late Round = 1-3 stars = 975 players
redbird, I would say your 57 picks are statistically significant so it sure looks likes Glu skews the picks.
On the other hand I have had much better luck than many people here have reported when pulling draft pics - my results seem to indicate the skewing is limited.
I am looking at upgrading my pitching to 4.5-5 stars. From your experience would it be better to go for #1 picks or just draft starting and relief pitchers.
It is so hard to say because Glu skews the lower players in any draft. I have started from the bottom and only made about 200 picks so far. The results? very similar to what redbird found with the #1 picks
1-star = 68 or 33%
1.5-star = 64 or 31%
2-star = 58 or 29%
2.5-star = 12 or 6%
3-star = 2 or 1%
In fact it is AMAZING that the numbers almost exactly match. Around 30% for the lowest, 30% for the next, 30% for the third, 9% for the second highest and 1% for the top.
But the most telling statistic is that there was only two 2.5 and 3-star picks in the first 160 players and twelve in the last 40. That means the % changes as you make more picks. I am not sure if its because the lower rated players are gone thus improving the odds or if its because Glu changes the odds as you pick more players, although I am leaning towards the latter since I have only 200 late rounders so far and Chaingang28 says there are 768 late round players.
Not sure how many players are in the game but I found 1337 who played in MLB in 2014. I have found 1080 in the game so far and continue to find players in the app who have stats for only one game in MLB so i am assuming they are pretty much all there. Francisco Peña is a great example, 1 game no stats in the majors yet he has a 1 -star 2/1/2 rating in the app after the October update (he has played AAA for most of the year).
Sorry I didn't answer your question with my above response. I will blame ADD.
There are 40 4.5 and 5-star Starting Pitchers to the best of my ability to figure it out.
There are between 213 and 235 total Starting Pitchers which means 17-19% are 4.5 to 5-star
There are between 488 and 530 total 3 to 5-star players available for #1 Draft pick which means 7-9% are 4.5 to 5-star
Sure looks like if you need a 4.5 to 5-star pitcher you have better odds drafting Pitchers.
However I think you probably have to draft at least 50 players to get one based on Glu skewing the results.