Mystery boxes and other player boxes

Bosox81 · July 2018

First off just want to say I love the boxes, and the possibility of getting great rewards. On that note holy is it ever difficult to pull a player. Yesterday I bought 6 Posey boxes and got 6 draft picks. In total I've must of spent over 40k in gold and havent pulled one after yet since 18 started lol. I am the only one with bad luck haha..I get it that it's a game of chance and that's what keeps bringing me back, and I'll keep buying them, but hopefully one day they will feel bad for me and let me get a good player hahah..best of luck to all espically me

LonzoBallin · July 2018

It's like playing the lottery, so you need to look at the odds. The chance of pulling Posey yesterday was 5%. That means, on AVERAGE it will take 20 pulls to get him. Some people may get him quicker, and for others it may take longer. For anyone who opened less than 20 boxes and didn't get him, there's really nothing to complain about, as that is what was expected. Always consider the odds and the cost/benefit before purchasing a box.

Bosox81 · July 2018

I agree 100%, sorry if it came across as complaining as I wasn't, just wanted to hear everybody else's story on boxes.

Bosox81 · July 2018

It's the odds that make me want to buy the box lol..I always want to try and get it earlier than later, just to say yes one and out lmao

LonzoBallin · July 2018

Bosox81 said:
It's the odds that make me want to buy the box lol..I always want to try and get it earlier than later, just to say yes one and out lmao

Yeah, there is something to be said about the thrill of opening a box and pulling a big time player. I guess it's the gambler in all of us that keeps us coming back. Last month I went 2 for 3 on player of the month picks, it was exhilarating! This month, 0 for 4 lol. It's all part of the game.

Bosox81 · July 2018

Couldn't agree more..good for you though last month that's awesome.. sorry to hear about this month, cant win them all I guess

fahhq2 · July 2018

What’s the deal with the all star boxes? They state a 30% rate, but I’ve heard story after story of guys spending 10+ boxes and not getting a single one. Our club has a guy on “detox”-leaving and stopping play for a couple weeks due to spending nearly 20000 gold w/o an all star!

Bosox81 · July 2018

Unfortunately it's a game of chance bro, I've read if you actually buy gold your odds increase but if you get all your gold from videos etc free gold they decrease, which makes sense to give better chances to those who pay for gold

dkarski87 · July 2018

False... Ive been on both sides of pulling good and bad. Today I got 1 in 1 pull. I have bought 2 mountains before and got 0... Its all dumb luck gentlemen. Although 7.5% is better now then it was before

Houmy · July 2018

@dkarski87 which box is 7.5% odds on?

Bosox81 · July 2018

Good to know..like I previously said "I've read" had no actual proof just what I read in these forums. But tha is for clearing that up

LonzoBallin · July 2018

Houmy said:
@dkarski87 which box is 7.5% odds on?

He's referring to the odds of pulling a 5 star player in the weekend box (10% chance if you include the prime 5 star).

Houmy · July 2018

@LonzoBallin thank you. I though maybe they changed the odds for the All Star boxes as 30% for a 425 max is just too good.

jhambombsquad · July 2018

I just licked out and pulled kemp on my first box...any thoughs on how the all stars are going to bonus this week?

Bosox81 · July 2018

Nice good for you!! I'm not too sure but I did buy 6 baysbest boxes or whatever they were are called and got nothing hahah luck of the draw

dkarski87 · July 2018

Luck of the draw all... had 1 guy for 3 for 3 in our club... landing All Star Judge... Another 1 for 1 landing Trout. The odds of getting the 425 players is 1/40. So those that got them... nice pulls. Look at @houmy, all his pulls were pitchers lol. I got 2 hitters and 2 SPs myself and I am stopping there. Wanted a 425max hitter for WOH but I will just stick with getting a 425max POW each week at 50/50 odds for WOH. I have a strong team but your best odds of beating WOH is with a POM or POW boosted at 425 max. I find that the 405 primes can DEF get it done but it may take a bit longer to achieve.

ghostofmiggypast · July 2018

I’m calling shenanigans on the players boxes. On iOS, they are forced by Apple to report the odds of getting a specific reward. For certain boxes, the reported odds are absurd as indicated earlier in the thread. Sometimes, the odds of pulling the headliner is 2.5% (25 out of 1000). Those boxes shouldn’t really be considered player boxes. They’re really miscellaneous rewards boxes where you’re more likely to get a daily amount of cash than an actual player.

Personally, I’d never waste time or resources on those unless I find myself short on a fan reward where I know I’m getting a player through the event, not the box. They’re a bad bet and bad game theory. Even if you pull the headliner, you still have to spend a bunch of resources leveling them up to a playable level. So, I can’t really call shenanigans on those types of boxes. They’re billed as bad bets for, the outset.

Where I am calling shenanigans is on the other player boxes, especially the event-oriented boxes. Those boxes tend to offer 1 or 2 headliners who are primes with similar odds to the specific player name boxes. But, these boxes also offer a host of lower rated players. Generally, there’s a few 5 Star players boosted to 340 or 355 Max and a few regular 3.5/4 Star players.

According to the listed odds, if you buy one of these boxes, you’ll get a player of some sort roughly 70% of the time. Granted, you’ll probably get a lesser player who might have a lesser bonus value for the event and won’t be useful beyond the event. But, at least you’ll get a player.

In theory.

However, over the course of the last 3 weeks, I’ve opened 73 of these boxes. I’ve kept track simply because a few guys on my club were complaining they only ever got xp from their boxes. I had actually pulled a decent player on my only open that week, so I didn’t think anything of it.

Anyways, 73 player boxes over the last 3 weeks. 6 players. 49 xp rewards. 19 Prime xp rewards.

Of the 6 players, none was rated higher than 3.5 stars. In fact, this past weekend, I got the exact same 3.5 star player on back to back opens.

In my opinion, GLU isn’t reporting their odds accurately, which would violate their terms of service with Apple. If it was just a handful of boxes with those results, it might be a run of independent bad luck. But, according to their listed odds, if I open 73 boxes, I should expect to get roughly 50 players and 23 xp rewards, not 67 xp rewards and 6 players.

Shenanigans have been called.

dkarski87 · July 2018

Perhaps, but your playing a game of chance, as I mentioned. We had guys pull 3 for 3 on all star boxes and getting 1 elite all star from that pull. I have also had fan rewards where I have spent 25 or 30k on boxes and got 0 bonus players. So you can crunch the numbers all you like. 20k gets your 60 pulls on a 300g box. I have gone 0 for 60 before. So believe me, yea it does suck when it happens. But I have also had weeks prior to this where I would pull a super bonus on my first pull, and in following weeks pull a super in 5 pulls or less for 5 consecutive weeks. But like I said, its all dumb luck. I had a recent stretch where I could not pull a player for 3 for 4 weekends after spending stupid amounts of gold. My luck on POM boxes was even worse. 0 for 8 last month and 2 for 14 this month.

I also know know a guy who has spent less then me on some of those weekends and pulled every single bonus player from a weekend box. 6 or 7 total, on more then one occasion. So believe me when I tell you I feel the pain of pulling crap over and over again but I find that sometimes you have bad stretches and sometimes you have good ones. I think in the last 2 weekend events we had at-least 4 or 5 guys each pull a super on the freebie gifts. It happens, odds dont always favor you. I do like the idea that someone mentioned before about a "Pity Timer". After you pull "x" amount of times you should be guaranteed a bonus player from that box. It suck when you pull 30 or 40 times and get nothing but XP and 3.5 stars from it.

ghostofmiggypast · July 2018

Games of chance should have accurately reported odds so players can evaluate their tolerance to accept the risk.

Clearly, I don’t mind games of chance as evidenced by my history of opening boxes after viewing the odds.

The shenanigans is called because it’s clear the odds are being manipulated.

gdc23 · July 2018

opened 30 Posey boxes to upgrade my boxes. Got 30 picks. Highest was 4.5 stars.

I almost threw my phone against the wall.

qkpony · July 2018

This is what I've noticed. In my own experience. If you get a box within the 1st hour of the event starts or on weekends early in the morning. I usually get a top player on a 300 or 500 gold box within 2 or 3 boxes doing that.

dkarski87 · July 2018

@qkpony I did that for the first 5 weeks and had much success. Pulled within the first 5 min of every event had did well with very few pulls. But I also had very bad ones using that same idea. It really comes down to dumb luck, people are pissed about the odds not being fair and what not but I bet you if anyone of those players pulled back to back primes on a pick there tune would change very fast. Its a game of chance, sometimes you can do very well in your pulls, other times you can get the same 3.5s player or XP 20 times in a row. Just how it goes sometimes.

qkpony · July 2018

I mainly get pissed when I get cash. To me that's a waste. I've also noticed onse I get a player I've not been able to get a 2nd one. Just a bunch of scrubs.

dkarski87 · July 2018

I agree... Cash and EVO have to be removed. For 1500 a pull, that a punch in the face. I was looking at the odds more carefully when they released the 2 for 1 deal again. One guy bought it again, pulled freeman. Solid right? NOPE. His freeman was a 300max, if the team win he becomes a 360 hitter. Only 2 possible players from both boxes can become a 430max. Trout and Schwrezer. If they win, loosing teams player stay at a 300max. Very misleading.

Haraycaray · July 2018

There have been times when I can pull a POTW first pull and weeks when I have to spend 4400 gold to get one. The most luck I’ve had is with POTM boxes honestly. Usually I can always get fifty percent with them. For the all star boxes I have purchased 7 and only got 2 players which if you look at the odds isnt horrible.

bashof5 · July 2018

I agree as well. I do find it very difficult to pull a player consistently. It’s either the first buy or it takes a minimum of 5 attempts

TRizzle98 · July 2018

The boxes really do make the game what it is. You put your gold in for the thrill of getting the huge rewards. Sometimes you go 0-8 on POTW, other times you go 2-2 on POTM and 3-4 on All-Star. Never know what you’re gonna get man.

Mystery boxes and other player boxes

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