You gotta be kidding me...

fahhq2fahhq2 Registered Users, Member 850 Posts

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  • JEDDDOGGYJEDDDOGGY Registered Users, Member 2,460 Posts
    It definitely does that. I bought 19 boxes Friday. Got Venters 3x on the first 18 (no other players).

    Luckily got Kemp on 19th box which is when I stopped because that’s who I was after. Was getting pretty angry, needless to say lol.

    Seems like that happens a lot. Get the same player over and over when there’s 6 or 8 other possible players. Happens every week in WOH it seems. It makes sense if you understand how RNG works. It’s really not “random” by definition. Most algorithms use a seed value such as a time stamp and then perform some other mathematical operations on that value and then call it “random”.
  • SandpipersSandpipers Registered Users, Member 1,327 Posts
    I don’t think it’s a stretch to say the RNG in this game needs some serious improvement and/or some serious scrutiny... would be interesting to have some comparison against other RNG code to measure fairness for outcomes... the bottom line is that few people in this game trust the results to be close enough to fair/random.
    It's all done with mirrors
  • HuskerHusker Registered Users, Member 111 Posts
    I actually think the overall box odds are accurate. The pulling the same player multiple times is a real (and incredibly frustrating) issue but @JEDDDOGGY's explanation makes some sense to me - I knew that the RNG's are not truly random because they have to start somewhere, but never thought of that being the cause of the same player issue. Not saying that is why it happens, but theoretically I can see it. The other non-random, so to speak, issue seems to be the odds when there are 3 players grouped as 1 in 10 odds, when they don't actually have the same odds, as I think we saw with the WOH box string. The players who were listed with specific odds were close to expected, but some of the 1/10 legends were near non-existent.
  • DFBBDFBB Registered Users, Moderators, Member, Moderator 6,602 Posts
    There's a 25% chance of getting a player and within that, 21% chance of getting either Peterson, Seager, or Freese. Based on those odds, every box has a 7% chance of getting Freese. Using binomial probability, your odds of pulling Freese three times is roughly 2.47%. It still stinks, but I don't think it's as extreme an outlier as it appears. 
    If you're not having fun, you're losing.
  • JEDDDOGGYJEDDDOGGY Registered Users, Member 2,460 Posts
    @DFBB it wouldn’t be of much concern to me either if it did not occur so frequently.

    Judge was a coin flip last Monday and I got him 8 straight times. That’s a 1 / 256 chance. 

    I also remember when the “chains out” Jose Reyes was in the walk off box. I also got him several times in a row and he was even lower odds. 37.5 percent maybe?

    I believe we got legend boxes as VIP gifts a few months ago and 425 max All Star Judge was a very low percentage and I pulled him 3x of out the 5 boxes. 

    Theres many more instances of this. It’s like the RNG algo they’ve developed gets stuck or something. Lol hard to know what would cause it but it’s something that happens very frequently and I’ve seen many people complain about.
  • DFBBDFBB Registered Users, Moderators, Member, Moderator 6,602 Posts
    Generally speaking, I do believe in the odds. Nobody complains when they pull a 1% player in their first and/or only box. Yet, when we see the other side of that extreme, everyone flips out.
    Personally, I do believe that there have been times where mistakes have been made and the odds stated didn't reflect the actual odds. I'm also not a fan of lumping guys in a group(10% WoH players) where each player doesn't represent an equal share of the given rate. IMO, that's extremely misleading and they need to do away with that practice. 
    Semi-related, I've now opened 14 boxes this weekend and I've yet to receive a single player. :( It stinks, but I'm not exactly losing sleep over it. Well, maybe I am if you count dreaming of that Gagne....LOL
    If you're not having fun, you're losing.
  • JEDDDOGGYJEDDDOGGY Registered Users, Member 2,460 Posts
    Haha I hear ya man! I’ve definitely had cold streaks and hot streaks. I also do believe the box odds themselves are at least somewhat close to accurate.

    But, specifically, the issue with pulling the same player many times in a row is something that I think is actually a real thing. I’ve experienced it myself with enough frequency let alone seeing many others speak of it.
  • barnstormbombersbarnstormbombers Registered Users, Member 96 Posts
    Just got the comeback bundle. 10 boxes, 3 duffys. Doesnt add up...
  • stevebalbonistevebalboni Registered Users, Member 108 Posts
    10 boxes annndd


  • DFBBDFBB Registered Users, Moderators, Member, Moderator 6,602 Posts
    0-16 on the weekend boxes now. To those on the other side of the extreme, you're welcome! lol
    If you're not having fun, you're losing.
  • jpuck6190jpuck6190 Registered Users, Member 156 Posts
    Im through 20 or so boxes. Pederson 4 times. Glu just lost me for next year. Do i expect a guaranteed top player no. But pulling the same players over and over is just a joke. And a waste of my time and money. If i would have pulled 4 different 375 players. This comment wouldnt even be happening. I probably would have kept trying and spent more money. It really amazes me at how poor their marketing skills are.
  • JEDDDOGGYJEDDDOGGY Registered Users, Member 2,460 Posts
    edited February 2019
    So that’s now five guys in this thread that bought 10 boxes and got the same guy 3x? (with jpuck getting a guy 4x)

    Plumb craziness!
  • SandpipersSandpipers Registered Users, Member 1,327 Posts
    I remember in 16 if you already had one of the players in the mystery box, he would be replaced with another of usually close to equal strength in the box automatically before you even made the the pull. I don’t recall duplicate pulls at any time. Didn’t play 17 much so I can’t refer to that version. I’ve  stated repeatedly how much I hate the duplicate player pull this year, even more than the crappy/possibly BS odds. With the number of versions of the same player they pump out, duplicates should never have been a thing.
    It's all done with mirrors
  • BigpredfanBigpredfan Registered Users 3,306 Posts
    I remember in 16 if you already had one of the players in the mystery box, he would be replaced with another of usually close to equal strength in the box automatically before you even made the the pull. I don’t recall duplicate pulls at any time. Didn’t play 17 much so I can’t refer to that version. I’ve  stated repeatedly how much I hate the duplicate player pull this year, even more than the crappy/possibly BS odds. With the number of versions of the same player they pump out, duplicates should never have been a thing.
    That was because XP wasn’t a thing in 2016. I remember that too 
  • jpuck6190jpuck6190 Registered Users, Member 156 Posts
    Update 3 free boxes netted me 2 more pederson and 1 freese. That makes pederson 6x in total 23-25 boxes cant remember.
  • DFBBDFBB Registered Users, Moderators, Member, Moderator 6,602 Posts
    I've now opened 19 boxes and I'm still waiting on my first player. :)
    If you're not having fun, you're losing.
  • Babybombers9Babybombers9 Registered Users, Member 212 Posts
    Reading these comments reminds me why I haven’t spent a single bit of gold on a box in months. 
  • HoumyHoumy Registered Users, Member 3,889 Posts
    I don't even want to discuss odds. All on me but damn.

    "Get ready for some NFTs" - VIP NEWSLETTER ca. 2022


  • JdotChristopherJdotChristopher Registered Users, Member 392 Posts
    I got this guy....1 for 15 on boxes....He seems okay tho.  
  • HuskerHusker Registered Users, Member 111 Posts
    edited February 2019
    Counting freebies, I’m 0 for 64 for a 445 or higher max player this weekend. It happens. It sucks but it happens. Of course one of my backup teams got Erskine from the free gift and another got Turner. I really should punt the weekend and just get the guys from WOH - it’d be way cheaper, but I’m not very bright about such things Sunday night when the damage is done.
  • newfynewfy Registered Users, Member 416 Posts
    I remember in 16 if you already had one of the players in the mystery box, he would be replaced with another of usually close to equal strength in the box automatically before you even made the the pull. I don’t recall duplicate pulls at any time. Didn’t play 17 much so I can’t refer to that version. I’ve  stated repeatedly how much I hate the duplicate player pull this year, even more than the crappy/possibly BS odds. With the number of versions of the same player they pump out, duplicates should never have been a thing.
    Yes in 17 duplicate players did happen but at least if that player was capped at a level (silver for example) and you were at a higher level, that player would level to gold 1 and you got the duplicate player rewards as well!!    
       
  • tocopan18tocopan18 Registered Users, Member 803 Posts
    Maybe you won't believe this story and maybe some won't agree with the way I handled it, but here it is.
    I really wanted Gagne from the dodgers box this weekend. You know how hard it is to come by a good reliever so I gave it a try. I had some gold saved up so I started buying boxes, and boxes and boxes. Ended up getting Anibal Sanchez and Baylor from the fan rewards after spending close to 50k gold. I also got a bunch of 375 players plus Turner and Bellinger, but none of the legends (1% chance) after more than 100 boxes. I was extremely frustrated of course. 
    Here comes Sunday and I decided to buy 10-boxes packages at $19.99 to try. After 2-3 and nothing I realized these people have a total scam and blame the RNG for it so I think I'm going to ask iTunes store a refund for my money but let me take it to the extreme now to prove my point. I bought 35 x packages at $19.99, that's right, $700. We are talking about 350 dodger boxes, plus the other 100 boxes using gold. ZERO legends, just a bunch of 375 guys, turner, bellinger and Hill. 
    Are you going to tell me that in 450 boxes that 1% won't be hit at least once???? 
    That's bull shit!!
    Of course, I contacted apple and told them I bought a package at $19.99 and the transaction got repeated like 35 times in like 5 mins, so they checked, said it was weird but they refunded me ALL of the $700 (thanks god otherwise it would have been a total disaster). Still I lost close to 50k gold only to keep players I didn't want.
    At least Anibal Sanchez and Rich Hill made my team, the rest is gone.
  • JEDDDOGGYJEDDDOGGY Registered Users, Member 2,460 Posts
    edited February 2019
    @tocopan18
    Apple and Google Play are polar opposite from what I hear. Seems like GooglePlay won't refund anything but I see Apple folks getting refunds out the wazoo. I pretty much only go in global chat for evo hunts but saw someone saying the other day that they actually did a credit card dispute against Apple/iTunes for $3,000 and got his iTunes account locked. He then contacted Apple and they pretty much told him- "Hey, we would have definitely just refunded all that money. Next time just ask."

    I remember when Gold Glove Salvador Perez came out I bought well over 120 boxes (lost count) and did not get him. He was 1 in 40 odds (2.5 percent).

    EDIT: I should clarify- I don't condone or agree with what you did. 
  • DFBBDFBB Registered Users, Moderators, Member, Moderator 6,602 Posts
    I ended up getting one player(freese) in 23 boxes. Hopefully, my lurk turns for WoH today.
    If you're not having fun, you're losing.
  • effschmoo2effschmoo2 Registered Users, Member 184 Posts
    You know this is a public forum right? Glu can and probably does read these posts and you just admitted to defrauding them $700...just putting that out there. 
  • MetsicansMetsicans Registered Users, Member 1,046 Posts
    tocopan18 said:
    Maybe you won't believe this story and maybe some won't agree with the way I handled it, but here it is.
    I really wanted Gagne from the dodgers box this weekend. You know how hard it is to come by a good reliever so I gave it a try. I had some gold saved up so I started buying boxes, and boxes and boxes. Ended up getting Anibal Sanchez and Baylor from the fan rewards after spending close to 50k gold. I also got a bunch of 375 players plus Turner and Bellinger, but none of the legends (1% chance) after more than 100 boxes. I was extremely frustrated of course. 
    Here comes Sunday and I decided to buy 10-boxes packages at $19.99 to try. After 2-3 and nothing I realized these people have a total scam and blame the RNG for it so I think I'm going to ask iTunes store a refund for my money but let me take it to the extreme now to prove my point. I bought 35 x packages at $19.99, that's right, $700. We are talking about 350 dodger boxes, plus the other 100 boxes using gold. ZERO legends, just a bunch of 375 guys, turner, bellinger and Hill. 
    Are you going to tell me that in 450 boxes that 1% won't be hit at least once???? 
    That's bull shit!!
    Of course, I contacted apple and told them I bought a package at $19.99 and the transaction got repeated like 35 times in like 5 mins, so they checked, said it was weird but they refunded me ALL of the $700 (thanks god otherwise it would have been a total disaster). Still I lost close to 50k gold only to keep players I didn't want.
    At least Anibal Sanchez and Rich Hill made my team, the rest is gone.


    Wait, so you knowingly spent $700, lied to Apple about it being a mistake, and then got refunded $700?

    Wow. 

  • BigpredfanBigpredfan Registered Users 3,306 Posts
    edited February 2019
    Metsicans said:
    tocopan18 said:
    Maybe you won't believe this story and maybe some won't agree with the way I handled it, but here it is.
    I really wanted Gagne from the dodgers box this weekend. You know how hard it is to come by a good reliever so I gave it a try. I had some gold saved up so I started buying boxes, and boxes and boxes. Ended up getting Anibal Sanchez and Baylor from the fan rewards after spending close to 50k gold. I also got a bunch of 375 players plus Turner and Bellinger, but none of the legends (1% chance) after more than 100 boxes. I was extremely frustrated of course. 
    Here comes Sunday and I decided to buy 10-boxes packages at $19.99 to try. After 2-3 and nothing I realized these people have a total scam and blame the RNG for it so I think I'm going to ask iTunes store a refund for my money but let me take it to the extreme now to prove my point. I bought 35 x packages at $19.99, that's right, $700. We are talking about 350 dodger boxes, plus the other 100 boxes using gold. ZERO legends, just a bunch of 375 guys, turner, bellinger and Hill. 
    Are you going to tell me that in 450 boxes that 1% won't be hit at least once???? 
    That's bull shit!!
    Of course, I contacted apple and told them I bought a package at $19.99 and the transaction got repeated like 35 times in like 5 mins, so they checked, said it was weird but they refunded me ALL of the $700 (thanks god otherwise it would have been a total disaster). Still I lost close to 50k gold only to keep players I didn't want.
    At least Anibal Sanchez and Rich Hill made my team, the rest is gone.


    Wait, so you knowingly spent $700, lied to Apple about it being a mistake, and then got refunded $700?

    Wow. 

    Basically just told Glu he stole from them. Getting a refund for something that is Glu’s fault is one thing, getting a refund because you decided to experiment is a whole different animal. 

    I understand that we all get frustrated when the odds don’t work out. If I flipped a coin 25 times and got tails all 25 times I would check the other side of the coin for sure, but it is still possible for it to happen. 

    My experience is that if tails comes up 25 times in a row (10 franchise coins from a tournament box for instance at 27% chance), I do eventually get a huge string of bonus games from the boxes. It does even out
  • tocopan18tocopan18 Registered Users, Member 803 Posts
    I don't care it is a public forum. Glu can read it? Fine.
    Before going to apple I submitted a ticket to GLU and explained the whole situation and how much it looked like a scam. I asked them to refund some (or all) of my money, some (or all) of my gold or at least give me one of the legends. Their response: "sorry, just an RNG". I told them I would take the case higher up to apple or credit card and their response: "do whatever you need to do".
    Are you kidding me? It is not a matter of money, I am a VIP so I am ok with spending lots of money (way more than I should) in this game. But being screwed this bad and even told that it was just my luck. 
    There you go. Like they told me, I did what had to do. 
  • SandpipersSandpipers Registered Users, Member 1,327 Posts
    Given the repeated stories all season long of “bad luck” and many extreme examples of 40-50 box purchases with terrible outcomes, there seems to be a problem. Recently Jedddoggy did a poll on woh boxes that showed skewed results for legends and now we have @tacopan18 sharing his ultimate “bad luck” story. I think we can all agree that our hopes and expectations of a particular outcome are mostly met with disappointment in the first 3-4 pulls and we shouldn’t be crying foul. Conversely, many of us have been shocked by getting a great outcome on the 1st or 2nd pull here and there. It’s when we have stories like tacopan18’s, or the 0/50 stories, or the getting the same guy anywhere from 3-8 times when there are others in the box with same supposed odds, that we can’t accept that the RNG is working well or is not rigged. Some people routinely pull the top players in the boxes, even being able to trade in ATG’s for the evo and then pull that same ATG again, while others are happy just getting a middle of the pack guy. We also have stories where gamers say they rarely get anything from buying boxes but routinely get players of any level from the global gifts. I suspect that if there was an audit for outcomes on all boxes opened by all gamers playing TSB, the results would probably hold true to the stated odds, but when it’s assessed by the individual, things get skewed...and that’s something that could clear up this whole controversy, random audits. It won’t happen, but it sure would put to rest a lot of anger and frustration.
    It's all done with mirrors
  • fahhq2fahhq2 Registered Users, Member 850 Posts
    Good for you @tocopan18
    i don’t agree with your experiment, but I admire ur ⚾️🏈🏀⚽️🎱🎾!!!
    btw...I bought another Dodgers box after my opening post and pulled Scoscia 🙏🏼😊
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