One week after going straight to diamond from gold

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  • BigpredfanBigpredfan Registered Users 3,306 Posts
    This weekend was my grind it out weekend, having just jumped to Gold.  I’m doing this the old fashion way, as a couple bad luck weekends have me reluctant to spend any real money on this game.

    I spent the entire weekend grinding videos like a madman....only to get GLU’d like crazy on Sunday.

    Bought 24 boxes this event

    Bought 12-13 boxes today and pulled one single player, who just happens to be a duplicate of the guy I landed Friday.

    so the math here is 5 players Friday.  5-12

    Sunday it’s 1-12.  I landed BXP on probably 8 of them


    I don’t care what you tell me....the posted odds are completely fabricated.

    right now I’m sitting at 9/12 on the 3 Hole Boxes....and I don’t even want to spend the 4.99 to guarantee the Prime pull because I’m nearly certain it’s just going to be Braun  again 
    I disagreed and here is why. 

    The box rate pulls are not fabricated. You got lucky on Friday with 5 player pulls in 12, then had a regression back to the mean. Just because you had a run of worse luck than 2 days before doesn’t mean the odds are wrong. Stated odds for the 3-hole box were 25% for a player, so you got 6 players in 24 boxes which is, you guessed it, 25%
  • TheFullMonteTheFullMonte Registered Users, Member 1,589 Posts
    edited October 2019
    Im an idiot.  I’ll blame that on typing after I had 6 beers before bed.

    i failed to include the (10) boxes I won from 5 CVC MVP’s....and the (1) box from gifts.  In the OP, I simply took gold spent, divided by 500 to calculate how many I had purchased.  

    So there are (11) additional boxes not included in that post.

    Additionally, the mathematical oddity here isn’t just in number of player pulls, but the rate of BXP vs PXP and LXP in that box
  • BigpredfanBigpredfan Registered Users 3,306 Posts
    Im an idiot.  I’ll blame that on typing after I had 6 beers before bed.

    i failed to include the (10) boxes I won from 5 CVC MVP’s....and the (1) box from gifts.  In the OP, I simply took gold spent, divided by 500 to calculate how many I had purchased.  

    So there are (11) additional boxes not included in that post.

    Additionally, the mathematical oddity here isn’t just in number of player pulls, but the rate of BXP vs PXP and LXP in that box
    It’s honestly still better math than @dkarski87 does when 100% sober. So you’ve got that going for you. 

    There are ebbs and flows when it comes to boxes though. Any diamond player can tell you how frustrating it is to get franchise coins from 8 tournament boxes in a row, but over 100 boxes the odds hold true. 
  • retirepujolsretirepujols Registered Users, Member 4,855 Posts
    Karski? Math? What?!
    "It's amazing how much work you can put in without gangly-ass legs in the way" - Sir Tdub71
  • BigpredfanBigpredfan Registered Users 3,306 Posts
    Karski? Math? What?!
    I envision this actual sequence happening in his head when someone just says the word “numbers”
  • dkarski87dkarski87 Registered Users, Member 3,040 Posts
    Funny thing is you said sober, and I dont drink. lmao @Bigpredfan @retirepujols
    "Oops we need to restart! Yeap that's 2019 for ya!"
    – The Great Houmy
  • TheFullMonteTheFullMonte Registered Users, Member 1,589 Posts
    Karski? Math? What?!
    I envision this actual sequence happening in his head when someone just says the word “numbers”


    Maybe this is due to the insane number of children in my house....but I read that sequence in the voice of Kowalski, the penguin from Madagascar

    Which to my addled brain was 1000 time funnier

  • retirepujolsretirepujols Registered Users, Member 4,855 Posts
    Karski? Math? What?!
    I envision this actual sequence happening in his head when someone just says the word “numbers”
    😂😂😂 

    "It's amazing how much work you can put in without gangly-ass legs in the way" - Sir Tdub71
  • BigpredfanBigpredfan Registered Users 3,306 Posts

    dkarski87 said:
    Funny thing is you said sober, and I dont drink. lmao @Bigpredfan @retirepujols
    So what I said was true 100% of the time!
  • retirepujolsretirepujols Registered Users, Member 4,855 Posts
    I don't think @Bigpredfan was talking about alcohol, bud 😉 all of those Canadian banana leaves can make the maths more difficult 🤪
    "It's amazing how much work you can put in without gangly-ass legs in the way" - Sir Tdub71
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