Let’s go Debby! @DFBB explain the “odds”. While you’re at it, define “expected”. Use mathematics. Not probability. Not likelihood. Too many leaches on your word

I spent just a little over 91k AND cipnrewads before I bought a 4.99 special and pulled him

Thanks. It makes me feel a little better knowing not everyone who got him pulled him from an admin gift or a cvc box. I’m over $400 and 40,000 in gold chasing this guy. I just know Glu is sitting back and laughing...

Odds, probability, and likelihood are 3 terms that are often interchangeable in our vocabulary. Yet they are 3 entirely different things altogether. Only 1 of them has true mathematical merit. That term is “odds”. The other 2 aren’t actual. This is why people lose they’re homes, and some get filthy rich. Both also come from the gambling industry.

First time I'm seeing this side of you, look at you flexxing them brain muscles! Loving it though, and all good info that all tsb need to learn so they stop chasing rental guys.

I have achieved VIP status chasing this guy and have even made it to All Star 11! I’ve also spent nearly 30,000 in gold buying the weekend boxes and the boxes from yesterday. This has got to be one of the most expensive chases in Taps history for one player right?

I honestly feel if I were given a box with a 99% chance to land him, I still wouldn’t get him, lol. However I’m almost certain I will pull him in the final minutes of the last event he is a bonus. I guess time will tell. The chase continues...

I've spent 71k for Ted(also picked on Jackie on the way to Ted), 92k for Lou, 43.5k for Hank, and 75k for Yogi. I've also spent a considerable amount chasing a repull, but so far, no dice. Fwiw, no ATGs via gifts/cvc so far. GL to you man. It will happen!

I appreciate it. This makes me feel a lot better. I guess the ones that say they’ve pulled him from CVC are the few lucky ones lol

40 yogi boxes at 2 percent chance per box. Anyone know what the odds of pulling him out of 40 boxes comes out to? 40 ish percent?

Still 2%. Each pull has the same odds as the previous pull. Picture putting 20 red balls in a jar with 980 blue balls. You could in theory land all 20 red balls in a row, but unlikely. You can also land 980 blue balls in a row. Also unlikely. But entirely possible. Odds don’t stack in such a vast pool.

Win or lose, this game always gives me blue balls!

40 yogi boxes at 2 percent chance per box. Anyone know what the odds of pulling him out of 40 boxes comes out to? 40 ish percent?

Expected odds are 55%.

How the hell did you come up with that figure?

I think you’re just a little confused. We are talking about the odds of pulling him out of 40 boxes with each box being 2 percent odds. We know that the od

What are the odds of pulling an ATG on a pity timer.

Your odds increase here, just by how much?

Yes, we are aware of the game having crashing issues in the middle of WoH, but we can't compensate you for the gold you lost at this time. This is done on a case by case basis. - TSB Customer Service

I dont think the legend or atg odds change on a pity timer - just the prime that increases to fill the void

Ah. Ok. That makes sense and I did not know that.

Yes, we are aware of the game having crashing issues in the middle of WoH, but we can't compensate you for the gold you lost at this time. This is done on a case by case basis. - TSB Customer Service

My entire paradigm of landing ATG’s is just screwed.

when they first released Jackie...I landed him (4) times in a 30 box weekend special I bought. Then landed him a 5th time that weekend in CVC

then I landed Ted the first weekend he was out. And despite buying far more boxes recently than I was back then...I have landed even one of the other guys

First of all, you guys trying to do the math, ARE SO WRONG, my advice, take a statistics course, the chance resets on every box you guys, so the chances to pull him start with the total overall number of boxes you buy. I am not going to go through it all, but you need much more complex math. Next, best bet is dump, clear your game cache many times daily, so the game AI cant use your data to figure player odds

## Comments

https://www.reddit.com/r/explainlikeimfive/comments/72mva3/if_the_probability_of_winning_is_1500_why_arent/?utm_source=amp&utm_medium=&utm_content=comments_view_all

Here is some fun:

What are the odds of pulling an ATG on a pity timer.

Your odds increase here, just by how much?

Yes, we are aware of the game having crashing issues in the middle of WoH, but we can't compensate you for the gold you lost at this time. This is done on a case by case basis. - TSB Customer ServiceA box has:

15% primes

5% legends

1% atg

19% bxp player

20% lxp

20%pxp

20% bxp

If the pity timer is due, then it now becomes:

94% primes

5% legends

1% atgs

There have been pity timer boxes/guarantees that have been issued in the past and those numbers are consistent with the example above.

Might as well spend the $49.99 on the Hump Day Deal and try with 20 boxes and....wait for it.........

At last!

Yes, we are aware of the game having crashing issues in the middle of WoH, but we can't compensate you for the gold you lost at this time. This is done on a case by case basis. - TSB Customer Servicewhen they first released Jackie...I landed him (4) times in a 30 box weekend special I bought. Then landed him a 5th time that weekend in CVC

then I landed Ted the first weekend he was out. And despite buying far more boxes recently than I was back then...I have landed even one of the other guys

I am the Blade...

The Blade is ME.