Draft pick XP payouts

BlackFang4BlackFang4 Registered Users, Member 515 Posts
I was bored yesterday while playing WOH and decided to make a chart that provides a weighted XP per pick formula. Below are appropriate XP values for base players who are traded in. Note that this applies to bronze 1 players only. Because a player of a certain star rating varies insignificantly (i.e. base 5 stars can be as high as 82 over or as low as 72) the xp/person of a certain star will vary, albeit insignificant. Therefore, each approximation should be given a +/- 5% variability. 

1 star - 11 XP
1.5 star - 17 XP
2 star - 29 XP
2.5 star - 75 XP
3 star - 201 XP
3.5 star - 518 XP
4 star - 693 XP 
4.5 star - 938 XP
 5 star - 1400 XP

Note that these are weighted averages. If you open one late round draft pick you could get 9 XP or more than 200 XP. However, as the odds pan out over a long period of opening picks, the average XP per pick will approach the average listed below.

Late round draft pick
1% at 201
9% at 75
30% at 29
30% at 17
30% at 11
Weighted average - 25.86 XP

Second round draft pick
2% at 693
3.5% at 518
5% at 201
26.5% at 75
29% at 29
34% at 17
Weighted average - 76.105 XP

First round draft pick
.5% at 1400
2% at 938
5% at 693
10% at 518
14.5% at 201
30% at 75
38% at 29
Weighted average - 174.875 XP 

#1 overall draft pick
2.5% at 1400
7.5% at 938
25% at 693
30% at 518
35% at 201
Weighted average - 504.35 XP 

Comments

  • bayoubengalbayoubengal Registered Users, Member 981 Posts
    @BlackFang4
    Sweet thanks 
    First, congrats on not being the 1st person to ask this question.
  • Tdub71Tdub71 Registered Users, Member 1,876 Posts
    Math is awesome!  That is a very useful estimator.  Thanks.
  • KeytonicKeytonic Registered Users, Member 26 Posts
    That is some good stuff thank you
  • DFBBDFBB Registered Users, Moderators, Member, Moderator 6,602 Posts
    Dang @BlackFang4, this is awesome!!!
    If you're not having fun, you're losing.
  • BlackFang4BlackFang4 Registered Users, Member 515 Posts
    Thanks for the kind words @bayoubengal, @Tdub71, @Keytonic, @DFBB. Math is my profession, so I figured I could put it to some practical uses for all the math haters!
  • navyjack77navyjack77 Registered Users, Member 1,299 Posts
    Maybe Glu should hire you to calculate the real odds on these boxes. 😂 In all seriousness, great work on those calculations.
  • BigpredfanBigpredfan Registered Users 3,306 Posts
    edited July 2019
    Thanks for this @BlackFang4. I was actually just thinking about this a couple of hours ago. I remembered doing a quick calculation last year when I opened 200 late round picks and 200 2nd rounders. The averages from them are almost exactly when you typed up there. 

    That is why I open all my late round picks periodically as opposed to letting them get too high where it feels like work to open them all
  • midgetmulletmidgetmullet Registered Users, Member 273 Posts
    Thanks @BlackFang4 this is great. 
    for your next project, could you please calculate the trade in value for cycling woh for each level?  Such as the trade in value when your woh prize is gold 4 compared to silver 10. 
  • BlackFang4BlackFang4 Registered Users, Member 515 Posts
    @midgetmullet I have plans to tally the drops from woh such as the 2,000 cash, seconds round draft picks late round draft picks, bonus games, and gold next Monday. I could fairly easily find out the trade in value for a 5 star player at x tier, if that's what you mean. As a general rule, if you're going to cycle cap the woh player you should level them to (your tier 10 - how many cycles you will do + 1, and minus 1 for every Evo you plan to do since pulling a dupe at gold 10 does not evolove them to platinum 10) (yet!). For example, if I cycle woh 15 times in platinum, I would get the player to Gold 5 after completing woh the first time to account for the fact that platinum 1 is only achievable by manually evolving a player. This leaves 14 cycles; 5 to get him to Gold 10, and 9 to get him from Platinum 2 to Platinum 10. Is this what you're looking for?
  • midgetmulletmidgetmullet Registered Users, Member 273 Posts
    edited July 2019
    @BlackFang4 thanks, yes I do that. But sometimes I know I’m only going to cycle two or three times and I’m going to dump the player after woh.  If im cycling twice, do I still bring them to gold 1?  Is the xp spent to level to gold 1 worth it?

     Also, if you are going to cycle 14 times are you sure that the xp gained from silver 7-10 is better than four times at gold 10 minus the cost to level silver 7-10?
  • BlackFang4BlackFang4 Registered Users, Member 515 Posts
    @midgetmullet No idea. I'm an accountant, not an advanced math degree.
  • 2003cobra2003cobra Registered Users, Member 2,720 Posts
    @BlackFang4 thanks, yes I do that. But sometimes I know I’m only going to cycle two or three times and I’m going to dump the player after woh.  If im cycling twice, do I still bring them to gold 1?  Is the xp spent to level to gold 1 worth it?

     Also, if you are going to cycle 14 times are you sure that the xp gained from silver 7-10 is better than four times at gold 10 minus the cost to level silver 7-10?
    The advantage of starting at silver 6 and cycling is that you get the duplicate player xp plus you get leveled up for free. The higher level that you are- such as platinum or diamond then that makes a huge difference. I don’t keep track of the numbers like some others but by taking Santana to platinum 1 yesterday and cycle capping him that saved me around 80k in pxp plus I was getting 15k I believe for a duplicate player per round.  I earned around 350k bxp yesterday but only added around 270k xp to my account. 
  • Bernardo22Bernardo22 Registered Users, Member 16 Posts
    Good stuff. I’m sure we’ve all thought about how much xp we’re gaining as we grind WOH games
  • midgetmulletmidgetmullet Registered Users, Member 273 Posts
    2003cobra said:
    @BlackFang4 thanks, yes I do that. But sometimes I know I’m only going to cycle two or three times and I’m going to dump the player after woh.  If im cycling twice, do I still bring them to gold 1?  Is the xp spent to level to gold 1 worth it?

     Also, if you are going to cycle 14 times are you sure that the xp gained from silver 7-10 is better than four times at gold 10 minus the cost to level silver 7-10?
    The advantage of starting at silver 6 and cycling is that you get the duplicate player xp plus you get leveled up for free. The higher level that you are- such as platinum or diamond then that makes a huge difference. I don’t keep track of the numbers like some others but by taking Santana to platinum 1 yesterday and cycle capping him that saved me around 80k in pxp plus I was getting 15k I believe for a duplicate player per round.  I earned around 350k bxp yesterday but only added around 270k xp to my account. 
    Exactly. I understand what you are saying but you get a pretty good amount of xp difference from gold 10 to silver 5. So even though you don’t have to pay to level through gold1, I’d like to know the exact numbers of traded in xp as it might be mathematically correct to just bring them to gold 1.....  or maybe to gold 2 or 3 from the start.   

    It costs 1400 xp to bring someone from gold 1 to gold 2.  So if gold 10 trade in value is more than 1400 xp different than gold 1, we should bring them straight to Gold 2.  If you are going to do many cycles.  Do you see what I mean?
  • 2003cobra2003cobra Registered Users, Member 2,720 Posts
    Got it. I believe that DFBB is this expert on this. He might weigh in on this later. 
  • midgetmulletmidgetmullet Registered Users, Member 273 Posts
     As a general rule, if you're going to cycle cap the woh player you should level them to (your tier 10 - how many cycles you will do + 1, and minus 1 for every Evo you plan to do since pulling a dupe at gold 10 does not evolove them to platinum 10) (yet!). For example, if I cycle woh 15 times in platinum, I would get the player to Gold 5 after completing woh the first time to account for the fact that platinum 1 is only achievable by manually evolving a player. This leaves 14 cycles; 5 to get him to Gold 10, and 9 to get him from Platinum 2 to Platinum 10. Is this what you're looking for?
    I politely disagree with this.  It costs 700 xp to level someone from silver 6 to silver 7.  I would assume woh cycling at gold 10 will net you more than 700 xp difference as it would to trade him in at silver 6. 
  • BlackFang4BlackFang4 Registered Users, Member 515 Posts
     As a general rule, if you're going to cycle cap the woh player you should level them to (your tier 10 - how many cycles you will do + 1, and minus 1 for every Evo you plan to do since pulling a dupe at gold 10 does not evolove them to platinum 10) (yet!). For example, if I cycle woh 15 times in platinum, I would get the player to Gold 5 after completing woh the first time to account for the fact that platinum 1 is only achievable by manually evolving a player. This leaves 14 cycles; 5 to get him to Gold 10, and 9 to get him from Platinum 2 to Platinum 10. Is this what you're looking for?
    I politely disagree with this.  It costs 700 xp to level someone from silver 6 to silver 7.  I would assume woh cycling at gold 10 will net you more than 700 xp difference as it would to trade him in at silver 6. 
    You're right. So it boils down to at what point does the XP difference between pulling a player at (your tier) 10 and some tier below it provide more XP than the XP cost to go from Gold 3 to Gold 4, per sé. This could be figured out relatively easily, as we already know the upgrade cost of all players since it is uniform. All we need  to know is the trade in value for max 350s at each level. 

    What with the higher tiers (platinum and diamond) being much more expensive to upgrade, and the trade in value of guys is unproportional, it would become more and more advantageous to level them less and less. For example, levelling a player from G9 to G10 is 4600 XP, and you get 7k XP for a trade in. But levelling a player from D9 to D10 is 54k XP, and the trade in value is about 20k. So it really depends what level you are on. There's no single way to do this.
  • BlackFang4BlackFang4 Registered Users, Member 515 Posts
    Basically we just need to trial and error it and see what ways of levelling give the most net XP.
  • midgetmulletmidgetmullet Registered Users, Member 273 Posts
    @BlackFang4 exactly.  After moving past gold I agree with estimated cycles minus your capped level.  But this chart would also help to see if you are cycling four times and dumping the player where to bring him to gain the most xp as it wouldn’t be bringing him to G7 from the start.  In previous posts others thought bringing to gold 1 is the best from the start but a chart will show the exact numbers without guessing. 
  • retirepujolsretirepujols Registered Users, Member 4,855 Posts

    D10- 350 max
    "It's amazing how much work you can put in without gangly-ass legs in the way" - Sir Tdub71
  • retirepujolsretirepujols Registered Users, Member 4,855 Posts

    P10- 350 max
    "It's amazing how much work you can put in without gangly-ass legs in the way" - Sir Tdub71
  • 2003cobra2003cobra Registered Users, Member 2,720 Posts
    7k more xp for someone that cost 500 gold 100 evo and over 150k xp hardly seems worth it huh?
  • retirepujolsretirepujols Registered Users, Member 4,855 Posts
    edited July 2019
    2003cobra said:
    7k more xp for someone that cost 500 gold 100 evo and over 150k xp hardly seems worth it huh?
    That's why cycle capping is so important 😂 it's more like five hundred gold and 100 Evo for ~400k bxp including savings?
    "It's amazing how much work you can put in without gangly-ass legs in the way" - Sir Tdub71
  • 2003cobra2003cobra Registered Users, Member 2,720 Posts
    I wasn’t sure of the bxp. Sometimes woh doesn’t fit into my schedule. Maybe glu will change it weekly if I send them my work schedule. 
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