Cycling diamond - cheapest way to spend blue cash

2Next

Comments

  • JEDDDOGGYJEDDDOGGY Registered Users, Member 2,067 Posts
    I swear every other post I edit then disappears and has to be approved. That's so aggravating. Now I have to repost that.
  • JEDDDOGGYJEDDDOGGY Registered Users, Member 2,067 Posts
    edited April 2020
    Below is a sample assuming equal win rates for BG and Tournament:


    Below is another sample assuming 99% win rate for BG and 95% win rate for Tournaments:



    The spreadsheet is attached if anyone would like to mess around with it. (you can edit the yellow fields to adjust win rates to see how the total # of wins per 5 million cash investment changes)
  • MoenPDCMoenPDC Registered Users, Member 615 Posts
    @JEDDDOGGY I do appreciate all the effort you put in this . I think your failing to overlook one HUGE component. 

    You get FREE bgA almost equal to what you get from buying 6 of them for 30k

    example. You buy 6 bg’s and get all your math and all the work you did to show what you get .

    i buy a tournament , on top of my four wins and gloves and cash, I also get 5.6 FREE bg’s, that you just paid 30k for. 

    Not sure how your overlooking this . This bg’s your paying 30k for, I’m on average getting almost the same amount as part of my tourney investment . 
  • JEDDDOGGYJEDDDOGGY Registered Users, Member 2,067 Posts
    @MoenPDC you're not taking into account the cash & bonus games you win from playing bonus games. You get more than 6 BGs for 30k. You're going to win 2-3 bonus games back and probably 3k or 6k cash from those 6 BGs.

    Also, I didn't leave out the rewards from winning tournament games and boxes. It's all right there in the tournament boxes section (range L6:O10) in the sheet.

    C'mon, man.
  • BigpredfanBigpredfan New Member Registered Users 2,982 Posts
    Sounds like it really isn’t too much of a difference either way. Lol
  • JEDDDOGGYJEDDDOGGY Registered Users, Member 2,067 Posts
    edited April 2020
    Sounds like it really isn’t too much of a difference either way. Lol

    Not if your win rates are similar. But most people are only winning 70% of tournaments. When you plug that number in, it looks kinda scary lol.
  • babyjbootsbabyjboots Registered Users, Member 459 Posts
    Can I plug my 401k numbers into the spreadsheet as well?
  • retirepujolsretirepujols Registered Users, Member 4,286 Posts
    edited April 2020
    Are tourneys more valuable during Royale? Also, have you really been earning a bonus game as a bonus game reward 40% of the time? That seems impressive.. I'm also curious if the bonus games earned from tournaments shown percentages are actually accurate (do we actually earn 12 bonus games 2% of the time, or is it closer to 7% in practice - little gems like that could have a big impact). In any case, extraordinary work @JEDDDOGGY
    "It's amazing how much work you can put in without gangly-ass legs in the way" - Sir Tdub71
  • JEDDDOGGYJEDDDOGGY Registered Users, Member 2,067 Posts
    edited April 2020
    Are tourneys more valuable during Royale?

    Idk, it seems like BGs are the big point getters in those events. If you want the guys from the tourney boxes, then I guess?

    Also, have you really been earning a bonus game as a bonus game reward 40% of the time?

    In 1000 games yesterday, 396 of them gave me a bonus game as a reward. Bigpred had also said it seemed 700 bonus games usually resulted in 1000 wins, which is a 43% return (although he was just giving rough #s off memory).

    For tourney boxes, I just used the odds as stated on the box. Would be suprised if they were better than advertised!

    I also have to lean toward BGs because of the 4 percent odds to get 25 gold. That's an extra 1,000 gold per cycle.

    Finally, consider the penalty for losing a tournament vs losing a bonus game. Losing a bonus game, you either get a bonus game or cash when that happens. If you lose a tournament game, you not only lose your tournament box entirely, but you also lose any remaining games in that tournament.
  • retirepujolsretirepujols Registered Users, Member 4,286 Posts
    JEDDDOGGY said:
    Would be suprised if they were better than advertised! 

    Excellent point.
    "It's amazing how much work you can put in without gangly-ass legs in the way" - Sir Tdub71
  • JEDDDOGGYJEDDDOGGY Registered Users, Member 2,067 Posts
    Can I plug my 401k numbers into the spreadsheet as well?

    Yes, don't forget to include your SSN and the account number before you send back to me.
  • jerrye23jerrye23 Registered Users, Member 30 Posts
    JEDDDOGGY said:
    Below is a sample assuming equal win rates for BG and Tournament:


    Below is another sample assuming 99% win rate for BG and 95% win rate for Tournaments:



    The spreadsheet is attached if anyone would like to mess around with it. (you can edit the yellow fields to adjust win rates to see how the total # of wins per 5 million cash investment changes)
    Hey Jeddy,
    What  I am not understanding is why you reinvested the blue cash, but not the bonus games from each scenario. Seems to me that the most logical way of doing this would be to not reinvest the blue cash,and factor out the rewards from the bonus games rewarded from each scenario.  That way you will see a  number of total wins per 5 million spent, and if a positive or negative was achieved in blue cash. The 913 bonus games won from tournaments to 396 from bonus games is a huge outlier that is not factored in.
  • JEDDDOGGYJEDDDOGGY Registered Users, Member 2,067 Posts
    edited April 2020
    @jerrye23 its in the table at the bottom there: "Game reward BG - 6" and "Tourney box reward BG - 907"

    We're reinvesting games too. It just isn't explicitly stated in the table, so I can see how one might miss that. The 913 games won from tournaments to the 396 won from the bonus games is a large difference as you said, but it is more than offset by the difference in the number of games from the initial investment (1000 BG, 666 tourn games) and the reinvestment of the cash rewards (851 BG, 544 tourn games).


  • jerrye23jerrye23 Registered Users, Member 30 Posts
    JEDDDOGGY said:
    @jerrye23 its in the table at the bottom there: "Game reward BG - 6" and "Tourney box reward BG - 907"

    We're reinvesting games too. It just isn't explicitly stated in the table, so I can see how one might miss that. The 913 games won from tournaments to the 396 won from the bonus games is a large difference as you said, but it is more than offset by the difference in the number of games from the initial investment (1000 BG, 666 tourn games) and the reinvestment of the cash rewards (851 BG, 544 tourn games).


    But  you are no factoring in the rewards from the 913 accrued bonus games vs the 396 accrued . that is where the tournament total will shoot past the bonus game total in both wins and blue cash. The cash should not be reinvested until an outcome is determined on the initial 5 million to compute a true cost per win. After all games are played using original 5 million investment , you want to know how many wins you have acquired, how much blue cash you have acquired and how much gold you have acquired. your original spreadsheet had 1000 bonus games = 2224 wins in the end,  but the 913 accrues from tournaments only counts as 913 wins. Seems just as important as reinvesting the cash at the very least.
  • JEDDDOGGYJEDDDOGGY Registered Users, Member 2,067 Posts
    edited April 2020
    @jerrye23 Yes, its a problem that invites a recursive solution, but it's not required in this case. It only takes 1 iteration to identify the trend, so its unnecessary to traverse past the initial investment and the rewards.

    There is more going on here than the 913 bg to 396 bg. You can't focus on only one aspect and then simply ignore the wins resulting from the cash investments (which both strongly favor BG). That isn't an equal comparison at all.




  • jerrye23jerrye23 Registered Users, Member 30 Posts
    you are ignoring factual data, and skewing the numbers by reinvesting the blue cash and not the bonus games. over 500 extra bonus games accrued but you are not allowing for any of the rewards from those bonus games, your argument is bonus games give more rewards than tournaments but the actual 500 extra bonus games from tournaments counting as a fixed number is just compromising the data to win your argument.   

    And as far as "There is more going on here than the 913 bg to 396 bg. You can't simply focus on one aspect and then simply ignore the wins resulting from the cash investments (which both strongly favor BG). That isn't an equal comparison at all."
    A true study doesn't reinvest the cash before all assets are accrued to completion.
    Why would you reinvest the cash before you have a full understanding of which model provided more assets?

     


  • dkarski87dkarski87 Registered Users, Member 2,523 Posts
    I want this thread closed @DFBB . Im getting a dam headache.
    "Oops we need to restart! Yeap that's 2019 for ya!"
    – The Great Houmy
  • JEDDDOGGYJEDDDOGGY Registered Users, Member 2,067 Posts
    edited April 2020
    The bonus games model reinvests the cash to bonus games. The tournament model reinvests the cash to tournaments. Why would you want the tournament model to reinvest the cash as bonus games? Because bonus games provide more assets?

    I don't care about winning an argument. I shared the spreadsheet so people could see the calculations and challenge them. Which you're doing. I'm not arguing with you, just trying to understand your approach here. It just seems like you are focusing on a single isolated piece of the calculation, but ignoring the entirety of the rest of it that doesn't support what you are trying to convey.
  • MoenPDCMoenPDC Registered Users, Member 615 Posts
    @JEDDDOGGY

    dude. You literally GET almost the same amount of bonus games from WINNING a tourney as you would from purchasing 6. On average it’s 5.6 games you get ON TOP of the tournement games you win . So all these numbers , would apply to the bonus games you get when you win a tourney. 

    There is a reason that anyone that cycles a lot runs tourneys to get bg and in their right mind would NEVER just buy bg

     this only applies if you win almost every tourney
  • JEDDDOGGYJEDDDOGGY Registered Users, Member 2,067 Posts
    edited April 2020
    @MoenPDC Again, one more time: bonus games also give bonus games and cash as rewards.
  • MoenPDCMoenPDC Registered Users, Member 615 Posts
    JEDDDOGGY said:
    @MoenPDC Bonus games also give bonus games and cash as rewards. I don't see why you keep ignoring that?
    NO KIDDING

    i swear...I can’t even right now.

    you purchase 6 bg for 30 k. You get all that night in stuff you have your chart For

    i purchase a tourney for 30 k and win. I get the tourney win and wait, on average I also get Close to 6 BG too! So on my bg’s I get all those bg and cash rewards THAT YOU GOT TOO .

    except I got an extra 4 wins from the Tourney and small cash
  • jerrye23jerrye23 Registered Users, Member 30 Posts
    I don't want either model to reinvest the blue cash. i want to see which model accrues the most blue cash, wins and gold. The 3 main components that we are all trying to acquire. Blue cash is a discretionary asset (can be spent in multiple ways), that's why it  should not  be reinvested until all acquired assets are exhausted. Bonus games are a fixed asset, you can only do one thing with them and that's play them. 
    Think about it like this, you spent 5 million blue cash on 1000 bonus games and your chart values it as 2,253 wins.
    The 913 free bonus games accrued from tournaments are valued at 913 wins. Using your chart , those 913 games with the same assumptions and reinvestment's are worth 2056 wins.
    The 396 free bonus games accrued from bonus games are valued at 396 wins. Using your chart , those 396 games with the same assumptions and reinvestment's are worth 892 wins.

  • JEDDDOGGYJEDDDOGGY Registered Users, Member 2,067 Posts
    edited April 2020
    @MoenPDC Ok, I appreciate your input. I can agree to disagree with you.

    @jerrye23 It sounds like you are making a completely different spreadsheet that reinvests the assets (BG rewarded) that suit your argument, and excluding the ones (cash rewarded) that support what the spreadsheet result is.
  • BigpredfanBigpredfan New Member Registered Users 2,982 Posts
    I’m getting dizzy from this thread 
  • Tdub71Tdub71 Registered Users, Member 1,876 Posts
    Well, at least it has remained civil.  No rules broken that I can see. 

    @GluSportsbIueleopard would be proud.
  • jerrye23jerrye23 Registered Users, Member 30 Posts
    @jerrye23 It sounds like you are making a completely different spreadsheet that reinvests the assets (BG rewarded) that suit your argument, and excluding the ones (cash rewarded) that suit mine. 

    Not at all. You are repeating the initial action, (bonus game guy has to buy more bonus games with his blue cash acquired, tournament guy has to buy more tournaments with his blue cash acquired) which is assuming what the user should or will do next. I am saying to exhaust  all fixed assets acquired from the original 5 million cash and you will have a true number of wins, gold and blue cash acquired per 5 million spent.
     What is your argument against that, if you are right, those 3 categories will prove it. 
  • redlegs2018uredlegs2018u Registered Users, Member 990 Posts
    The cash you win from the tourney games, (I’m not diamond this season but was in ‘18-‘19) typically makes your 30k investment more like 24-27k per tourney (normal reward is 1,000 or 1,500 cash, infrequently you can get something else, even a BG.) won.  If I was winning 90% plus of my tourneys I’d do a 60 win/40 win split that on average would cost me between 1.5-2M cash per 1,000 wins and more or less kept my BG total static and with good tourney box luck I’d even gain 50-60 games per cycle.  It did cost more cash at the beginning of D6 cycles because you lose more often as pitching in many cases isn’t up to par to win some of the more difficult matchups against the names we all know.  I don’t have spreadsheets or anything to put hard numbers into it but I tended to lean more to BGs early as tourneys weren’t as reliable but as tourneys get easier to win I would incorporate them to make cycling more efficient for myself.  
  • navyjack77navyjack77 Registered Users, Member 1,221 Posts
    I went Diamond fairly early in ‘19 (don’t remember exactly when) and I tend to agree with @redlegs2018u. I struggled winning tournaments early on compared to BGs, but as my team got stronger, tournaments became easier to win. I didn’t do anything as complicated as @JEDDDOGGY, but I did pay attention to my cash flow while cycling D6. Once I started winning 99% of my tournament games, it became a far more lucrative way to cycle D6 IMO. Yes, it sucked to get FCs or even ice wraps with the tournament box, but during the Royale days that had bonus players in the boxes, the FCs percentage dropped, making BGs even more likely to pull. I won’t be doing any of that yet until XP becomes more attainable. Too hard to come by to consider a move to Plat or Dia IMO.
  • dustyhunksdustyhunks Registered Users, Member 1,615 Posts
    edited April 2020
    I love this thread.


  • dkarski87dkarski87 Registered Users, Member 2,523 Posts
    @s headaches. Wheres a moderator when you need one.
    "Oops we need to restart! Yeap that's 2019 for ya!"
    – The Great Houmy
Sign In or Register to comment.