This has been the theme all year. Glu has altered the pulling algorithm, and as such, pull odds are drastically different than stated in the box odds.
I'll say that they are using a system that has been employed by numerous mobile gaming companies and even casinos. It's not "illegal" but its certainly misleading.
I'm curious how people know they changed the pulling algorithm.
This is simple stats class stuff.
Everybody is aware that it's not a cumulative thing right? If a player has a 5% chance of being pulled. It doesn't mean if you buy 20 boxes, you should pull him once. It means that every time you buy a box, you have a 5% chance of pulling him.
On your 1000th box, you still only have a 5% chance to pull said player. Your odds don't get better with each box.
I'm curious how people know they changed the pulling algorithm.
This is simple stats class stuff.
I will caution you before you head down this rabbit hole that you are most likely drastically underestimating 1) the level that some of these people play at, and the complexity of the systems they utilize, and 2) the relevant experience and expertise of certain players in related fields.
I'm curious how people know they changed the pulling algorithm.
This is simple stats class stuff.
I will caution you before you head down this rabbit hole that you are most likely drastically underestimating 1) the level that some of these people play at, and the complexity of the systems they utilize, and 2) the relevant experience and expertise of certain players in related fields.
I also don't underestimate the "systems" that hundreds of thousands, maybe millions, of people play the lottery too. As humans we have an incredible ability to convince ourselves of silly things.
Unless you have the actual hard copy of the programming behind the app and can show it, it is nothing more than conjecture. I could pull the best player 5 times in a row. Unlikely? yes. But that doesn't mean the RNG algorithm was changed.
Sometimes I get excited about the possibility of getting an elite player from a box...then I look at the odds of actually getting him and laugh at my own stupidity.
last weekend I bought, including the field pass, 25 boxes. I did not get a single 5 star player. Target bash, I won one game. 4 boxes. I got 3, 5 star players.
The idea that they are changing the algorithms around etc is crazy talk. This is basic gambling, casino psychology. They KNOW that guys are going to have excel spreadsheets with years of data collected. That there may even be guys with programming knowledge who have made their own apps or programs to track stuff. They don't need to change anything, because they know people will spend money regardless. there is no big conspiracy unless you have actual physical proof.
Raising the cost or lowering the odds on some boxes. Raising the cost to auto a round in WOH. The laziness of making a 34 overall pitcher a beast in a late round of WOH instead of just putting in a pitcher with an equivalent rating to at least make the loss more visually appealing. These things we can see and clearly prove that they have made unfair changes for whatever reason.
But the stuff about RNG and changing algorithms etc is straight up gamblers fallacy and conspiracy theory, put on your foil (hehehe) hat stuff.
FWIW, most people that do well don’t post so most of what we hear will be the ones that are getting crushed. For example, the last two weekends I’ve spent about 7k gold and I have both Trout foils, Didi foil, and the Bryant foil. I also know of a few others who have had crazy good luck too.
I'm curious how people know they changed the pulling algorithm.
This is simple stats class stuff.
Everybody is aware that it's not a cumulative thing right? If a player has a 5% chance of being pulled. It doesn't mean if you buy 20 boxes, you should pull him once. It means that every time you buy a box, you have a 5% chance of pulling him.
On your 1000th box, you still only have a 5% chance to pull said player. Your odds don't get better with each box.
This!!! I’ve been telling this exact thing to friends, club members and forum goers for years. Not many people understand that!!
last weekend I bought, including the field pass, 25 boxes. I did not get a single 5 star player. Target bash, I won one game. 4 boxes. I got 3, 5 star players.
The idea that they are changing the algorithms around etc is crazy talk. This is basic gambling, casino psychology. They KNOW that guys are going to have excel spreadsheets with years of data collected. That there may even be guys with programming knowledge who have made their own apps or programs to track stuff. They don't need to change anything, because they know people will spend money regardless. there is no big conspiracy unless you have actual physical proof.
Raising the cost or lowering the odds on some boxes. Raising the cost to auto a round in WOH. The laziness of making a 34 overall pitcher a beast in a late round of WOH instead of just putting in a pitcher with an equivalent rating to at least make the loss more visually appealing. These things we can see and clearly prove that they have made unfair changes for whatever reason.
But the stuff about RNG and changing algorithms etc is straight up gamblers fallacy and conspiracy theory, put on your foil (hehehe) hat stuff.
25 boxes is nothing... very common to not pull a 5* with 25 boxes and this year’s rng system. Have you ever opened 80 boxes and not pulled a 5*?
Does anybody know how many people there are actually on TSB?
80 boxes and no 5 star? I bet in a weekend event there are thousands of boxes pulled without a 5 star being pulled. Mathematically possible that it could be one single guy pulling all of those empty boxes.
Does anybody know how many people there are actually on TSB?
80 boxes and no 5 star? I bet in a weekend event there are thousands of boxes pulled without a 5 star being pulled. Mathematically possible that it could be one single guy pulling all of those empty boxes.
Luck is a bitch.
@mythicaldragonb Box #96 gave me my first five star player(reg belly) in the first weekend.
It’s best not to break down the odds or mathematical likelihood of pulling a player. You either pull them or you don’t. Nor do any of those posted odds really mean anything. I’m not sure why some people hold those odds as if it’s iron clad either. This IS Glu we’re talking about.
I'm curious how people know they changed the pulling algorithm.
This is simple stats class stuff.
Everybody is aware that it's not a cumulative thing right? If a player has a 5% chance of being pulled. It doesn't mean if you buy 20 boxes, you should pull him once. It means that every time you buy a box, you have a 5% chance of pulling him.
On your 1000th box, you still only have a 5% chance to pull said player. Your odds don't get better with each box.
This!!! I’ve been telling this exact thing to friends, club members and forum goers for years. Not many people understand that!!
The difference is known values(opened) vs unknown(i.e if I buy 'x' amount of boxes).
I see it as sometimes you go through a bad spell and then out of no where you are pulling foils. You have to keep grinding and eventually the fortune will swing your way. I think people are reading into this way to much. At the end of the day it's a freaking video game.
Does anybody know how many people there are actually on TSB?
80 boxes and no 5 star? I bet in a weekend event there are thousands of boxes pulled without a 5 star being pulled. Mathematically possible that it could be one single guy pulling all of those empty boxes.
Luck is a bitch.
@mythicaldragonb Box #96 gave me my first five star player(reg belly) in the first weekend.
There are two known factors to this equation: (1)if you don’t open boxes, you won’t get a 5 star player (except WOH), and (2) the more boxes you open, the more likely you are to pull a 5 star player. It doesn’t mean your odds go up each box you do open, it will always be the same odds, but you can eventually beat the odds and win.
There are two known factors to this equation: (1)if you don’t open boxes, you won’t get a 5 star player (except WOH), and (2) the more boxes you open, the more likely you are to pull a 5 star player. It doesn’t mean your odds go up each box you do open, it will always be the same odds, but you can eventually beat the odds and win.
This is the exact wrong statement. "the more boxes you open, the more likely you are to pull a 5 star player."
You have the exact same odds to pull a 5 star player with every single box. Your odds do NOT get better the more boxes you open, unless it specifically states that you get a guaranteed 5 star player after 10, 15 boxes etc.
1) if you don't open boxes, you won't get a 5 star player (except WOH) 2) Opening boxes gives a chance better than 0 of getting a 5 star player.
Saying "it will be the same odds, but you can eventually beat the odds..." is grade A gambling logic. It's simply not true. There is absolutely nothing that says you get a 5 star player the more boxes you open......i.e. 235k chasing a specific 5 star player. It may "feel" like you are beating the odds. But you are not.
If you can't handle the stress of taking a gamble. Don't buy boxes. Save gold, spend it on other things in the game and play WOH to build your team.
@SheetFreak I may have misspoke...If you don’t pull a player on the first box you buy, and you don’t buy any more boxes, you don’t get a player. If you buy one more box after that, you are more likely to pull a player than only buying one that didn’t contain said player. Yes, many gambling addicts say “just one more” thinking they will hit what they are looking to hit, but the bottom line is, if they don’t play that one more, they definitely won’t hit it, and that is what gets them. I do have an addictive personality, but I do know what the difference is.
@navyjack77 I'm sure the majority of us, myself included, have that addictive personality lol
I'm not preaching from some high horse here. As a BlueJays Fan I definitely chased Ryu HARD a month ago on Wed and Thurs. Spent thousands in gold, blew my gold savings on him. Got him with about 45 minutes left to go in the BG event. So he was useless essentially 45 minutes after getting him (although was still a solid pitcher for me. I only replaced him a week or so ago).
I may get pissed off. But I'm self aware enough to know I just didn't stop when I should have. I'm not going to blame Glu for that.
The problem isn't the box odds and if they are right or wrong. The real crime is the fact that the pity timer resets at a 4.5 star and can give you a 4.5 star when you hit the pity timer. I got screwed with that last weekend getting Vogt from the "pity timer". It's a slap in the face that they implemented that as a courtesy to players, but have reverted it to being worse than before the pity timer was implemented.
The problem isn't the box odds and if they are right or wrong. The real crime is the fact that the pity timer resets at a 4.5 star and can give you a 4.5 star when you hit the pity timer. I got screwed with that last weekend getting Vogt from the "pity timer". It's a slap in the face that they implemented that as a courtesy to players, but have reverted it to being worse than before the pity timer was implemented.
For this reason alone I try as hard as I can to not buy boxes. Glu helps me because when I get weak they shove a useless 4.5 down my throat.
I'm confused by what you mean by 5.7 and 5.8. You mean the round and level?
It’s best not to break down the odds or mathematical likelihood of pulling a player. You either pull them or you don’t. Nor do any of those posted odds really mean anything. I’m not sure why some people hold those odds as if it’s iron clad either. This IS Glu we’re talking about.
Sooooooo…...you're saying the box odds are 50/50. I like it. Much better than we have today
Comments
This has been the theme all year. Glu has altered the pulling algorithm, and as such, pull odds are drastically different than stated in the box odds.
I'll say that they are using a system that has been employed by numerous mobile gaming companies and even casinos. It's not "illegal" but its certainly misleading.
This is simple stats class stuff.
Everybody is aware that it's not a cumulative thing right?
If a player has a 5% chance of being pulled. It doesn't mean if you buy 20 boxes, you should pull him once.
It means that every time you buy a box, you have a 5% chance of pulling him.
On your 1000th box, you still only have a 5% chance to pull said player. Your odds don't get better with each box.
– The Great Houmy
As humans we have an incredible ability to convince ourselves of silly things.
Unless you have the actual hard copy of the programming behind the app and can show it, it is nothing more than conjecture.
I could pull the best player 5 times in a row. Unlikely? yes. But that doesn't mean the RNG algorithm was changed.
Target bash, I won one game. 4 boxes. I got 3, 5 star players.
The idea that they are changing the algorithms around etc is crazy talk. This is basic gambling, casino psychology.
They KNOW that guys are going to have excel spreadsheets with years of data collected. That there may even be guys with programming knowledge who have made their own apps or programs to track stuff.
They don't need to change anything, because they know people will spend money regardless.
there is no big conspiracy unless you have actual physical proof.
Raising the cost or lowering the odds on some boxes. Raising the cost to auto a round in WOH. The laziness of making a 34 overall pitcher a beast in a late round of WOH instead of just putting in a pitcher with an equivalent rating to at least make the loss more visually appealing. These things we can see and clearly prove that they have made unfair changes for whatever reason.
But the stuff about RNG and changing algorithms etc is straight up gamblers fallacy and conspiracy theory, put on your foil (hehehe) hat stuff.
– The Great Houmy
– The Great Houmy
80 boxes and no 5 star?
I bet in a weekend event there are thousands of boxes pulled without a 5 star being pulled.
Mathematically possible that it could be one single guy pulling all of those empty boxes.
Luck is a bitch.
"the more boxes you open, the more likely you are to pull a 5 star player."
You have the exact same odds to pull a 5 star player with every single box. Your odds do NOT get better the more boxes you open, unless it specifically states that you get a guaranteed 5 star player after 10, 15 boxes etc.
1) if you don't open boxes, you won't get a 5 star player (except WOH)
2) Opening boxes gives a chance better than 0 of getting a 5 star player.
Saying "it will be the same odds, but you can eventually beat the odds..." is grade A gambling logic. It's simply not true. There is absolutely nothing that says you get a 5 star player the more boxes you open......i.e. 235k chasing a specific 5 star player. It may "feel" like you are beating the odds. But you are not.
If you can't handle the stress of taking a gamble. Don't buy boxes. Save gold, spend it on other things in the game and play WOH to build your team.
I'm sure the majority of us, myself included, have that addictive personality lol
I'm not preaching from some high horse here. As a BlueJays Fan I definitely chased Ryu HARD a month ago on Wed and Thurs. Spent thousands in gold, blew my gold savings on him. Got him with about 45 minutes left to go in the BG event. So he was useless essentially 45 minutes after getting him (although was still a solid pitcher for me. I only replaced him a week or so ago).
I may get pissed off. But I'm self aware enough to know I just didn't stop when I should have. I'm not going to blame Glu for that.