ODDS OF PULLING TOP PLAYER, IMPOSSIBLE SAVE YOUR GOLD!!!!

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  • MattattackMattattack New Member Registered Users 1,611 Posts
    just buy one more box
  • AirAssaultAirAssault Registered Users, Member 103 Posts
    Has anyone else had much better luck getting a 5 star player from the boxes that are either "gifts" from GLU or rewards for mvp/high score in CvC? I feel like nothing ever comes from the boxes I buy with gold and that almost all of my best pulls have come from gifted boxes. Maybe it's just random luck and the odds are actually the same either way....I'm curious if anyone else has had a similar experience or noticed this?
  • sullipa8sullipa8 Registered Users, Member 307 Posts
    It’s back and forth with me. Sometimes the gifts/reward boxes pay off. Other times it’s the ones I buy. Today, all the free dog boxes have been franchise coins and bonus games. 
  • cbozcboz Registered Users, Member 3 Posts
    I'm curious how people know they changed the pulling algorithm.

    This is simple stats class stuff.


    Everybody is aware that it's not a cumulative thing right? 
    If a player has a 5% chance of being pulled. It doesn't mean if you buy 20 boxes, you should pull him once.
    It means that every time you buy a box, you have a 5% chance of pulling him.

    On your 1000th box, you still only have a 5% chance to pull said player. Your odds don't get better with each box.
    I’ve got to remember this.. I know better but when I’m on my 30th box i figure I’m owed a 1 in 20 player... and I guess that’s the trap. Some days you spend everything for nothing, on around my 15th box today I pulled the 340 Acuna twice and the 330 Santana. I just have to have the will power to spend the resources I can afford, as I’m quickly learning some players just aren’t worth the effort in the long term.
  • cbozcboz Registered Users, Member 3 Posts
    I guess what I’m saying is disregard the odds, they only increase the disappointment
  • ToughthundercatsToughthundercats New Member Registered Users, Member 1,091 Posts
    cboz said:
    I'm curious how people know they changed the pulling algorithm.

    This is simple stats class stuff.


    Everybody is aware that it's not a cumulative thing right? 
    If a player has a 5% chance of being pulled. It doesn't mean if you buy 20 boxes, you should pull him once.
    It means that every time you buy a box, you have a 5% chance of pulling him.

    On your 1000th box, you still only have a 5% chance to pull said player. Your odds don't get better with each box.
    I’ve got to remember this.. I know better but when I’m on my 30th box i figure I’m owed a 1 in 20 player... and I guess that’s the trap. Some days you spend everything for nothing, on around my 15th box today I pulled the 340 Acuna twice and the 330 Santana. I just have to have the will power to spend the resources I can afford, as I’m quickly learning some players just aren’t worth the effort in the long term.
    That is a great perspective to have. Spend the resources that you can afford and be selective at who you chase. For me it's position, right now I need a first basemen but he'll need to have a skill set favorable for CvC and WoH otherwise I won't spend resources to chase. Set a mental limit of boxes that you are going to stop at if you don't get the player you want. There will be other opportunities for better players at the positions that you need to fill or skill sets you need.
  • TheFullMonteTheFullMonte Registered Users, Member 1,330 Posts
    last weekend I bought, including the field pass, 25 boxes. I did not get a single 5 star player.
    Target bash, I won one game. 4 boxes. I got 3, 5 star players.

    The idea that they are changing the algorithms around etc is crazy talk. This is basic gambling, casino psychology.
    They KNOW that guys are going to have excel spreadsheets with years of data collected. That there may even be guys with programming knowledge who have made their own apps or programs to track stuff.
    They don't need to change anything, because they know people will spend money regardless.
    there is no big conspiracy unless you have actual physical proof.

    Raising the cost or lowering the odds on some boxes. Raising the cost to auto a round in WOH. The laziness of making a 34 overall pitcher a beast in a late round of WOH instead of just putting in a pitcher with an equivalent rating to at least make the loss more visually appealing. These things we can see and clearly prove that they have made unfair changes for whatever reason.

    But the stuff about RNG and changing algorithms etc is straight up gamblers fallacy and conspiracy theory, put on your foil (hehehe) hat stuff.
    I don’t think you have a CLUE how many boxes these serious players are opening and the amount of experience they have testing the odds.
  • DFBBDFBB Registered Users, Moderators, Member, Moderator 5,343 Posts
    I opened close to 800 tourney boxes last night. I took Mallex to g10, then p8, and box capped him. My first pull came at box #56. I once had 3 pulls in a span of about 8 boxes. I went over 300 with just one pull. It felt like it took forever to get him to d9 and d10. Ultimately, I wasn't far off the stated odds. 
    If you're not having fun, you're losing.
  • SheetFreakSheetFreak Registered Users, Member 89 Posts
    @TheFullMonte
    The problem is, even those serious players. They're gathering data from a single person pulling boxes. There is nothing that says "you will pull this player 5% of the time". It says you have a 5% chance of pulling them.

    Unless those odds are based on ALL boxes pulled and not just boxes pulled by one player or an entire club of serious players buying 5000 boxes in a weekend. Then the numbers they have are skewed and not appropriate scientific/mathematical data.

    Maybe they are buying 5000 boxes in a weekend and only getting those 5% guys at around 2% of the time. But then there are guys buying 5 boxes and pulling that 5% guy 60% of the time.

    For any numbers to be accurate, you need to be able to see how many times a box is bought by EVERYBODY and how many times in total these players were pulled.

    In the last 24 hours. I bought 12 of the box bandit boxes (not a huge number I know) and I didn't get Acuna.
    5 minutes ago, I won 3 boxes in cvc, pulled him twice out of the 3 boxes.
  • xracmanxracman Registered Users, Member 341 Posts
    From the free box we got for Glu screwing up the Pick ‘Em answers: 
  • xracmanxracman Registered Users, Member 341 Posts
    DFBB said:
    I opened close to 800 tourney boxes last night. I took Mallex to g10, then p8, and box capped him. My first pull came at box #56. I once had 3 pulls in a span of about 8 boxes. I went over 300 with just one pull. It felt like it took forever to get him to d9 and d10. Ultimately, I wasn't far off the stated odds. 
    You played 3200 Tournament Games last night?
    We are not worthy.
  • DFBBDFBB Registered Users, Moderators, Member, Moderator 5,343 Posts
    xracman said:
    DFBB said:
    I opened close to 800 tourney boxes last night. I took Mallex to g10, then p8, and box capped him. My first pull came at box #56. I once had 3 pulls in a span of about 8 boxes. I went over 300 with just one pull. It felt like it took forever to get him to d9 and d10. Ultimately, I wasn't far off the stated odds. 
    You played 3200 Tournament Games last night?
    We are not worthy.
    I had 566 boxes saved prior to the event. 
    If you're not having fun, you're losing.
  • SheetFreakSheetFreak Registered Users, Member 89 Posts
    DFBB said:
    xracman said:
    DFBB said:
    I opened close to 800 tourney boxes last night. I took Mallex to g10, then p8, and box capped him. My first pull came at box #56. I once had 3 pulls in a span of about 8 boxes. I went over 300 with just one pull. It felt like it took forever to get him to d9 and d10. Ultimately, I wasn't far off the stated odds. 
    You played 3200 Tournament Games last night?
    We are not worthy.
    I had 566 boxes saved prior to the event. 
    whoa.whoa.whoa.




    So, If I play tourneys and don't open the boxes I win. The prizes change when the event ends??????
  • DFBBDFBB Registered Users, Moderators, Member, Moderator 5,343 Posts
    DFBB said:
    xracman said:
    DFBB said:
    I opened close to 800 tourney boxes last night. I took Mallex to g10, then p8, and box capped him. My first pull came at box #56. I once had 3 pulls in a span of about 8 boxes. I went over 300 with just one pull. It felt like it took forever to get him to d9 and d10. Ultimately, I wasn't far off the stated odds. 
    You played 3200 Tournament Games last night?
    We are not worthy.
    I had 566 boxes saved prior to the event. 
    whoa.whoa.whoa.




    So, If I play tourneys and don't open the boxes I win. The prizes change when the event ends??????
    It varies as far as when the boxes will change, but they will change to reflect the current tourney rewards. Most of those boxes, for example, I picked up when Carp was the tourney reward. 
    If you're not having fun, you're losing.
  • RodFarvaRodFarva Registered Users, Member 107 Posts
    DFBB said:
    It varies as far as when the boxes will change, but they will change to reflect the current tourney rewards. Most of those boxes, for example, I picked up when Carp was the tourney reward. 
    But no matter when you earned the box, when you open it, the current published contents are what you get?
    That's staggeringly useful information - thanks!
  • xracmanxracman Registered Users, Member 341 Posts
    RodFarva said:
    DFBB said:
    It varies as far as when the boxes will change, but they will change to reflect the current tourney rewards. Most of those boxes, for example, I picked up when Carp was the tourney reward. 
    But no matter when you earned the box, when you open it, the current published contents are what you get?
    That's staggeringly useful information - thanks!
    How's that work when you change tiers from Silver to Gold etc?
    I could swear someone posted that last year and the answer was that the prizes are what they were when you won the box.
  • TimidDeuceTimidDeuce Registered Users, Member 72 Posts
    I believe silver tourney boxes will remain silver tourney boxes (and not convert to gold if you level up).  However, withing a tier, the prizes are dynamic.  I have platinum tourney boxes from yesterday's event that no longer contain Mallex Smith and the other scrub as of this morning.  Some time before the next Royale they will update the box contents and those same boxes I won yesterday will contain those contents.  It pays to accumulate boxes and only open them if you want the player (during Royale) or need the BGs.  Also a compelling value add in the Tourney vs BG debate for cycling D6.
  • MillecorsMillecors Registered Users, Member 719 Posts
    xracman said:
    From the free box we got for Glu screwing up the Pick ‘Em answers: 
    That's how I got him too.  Wish I hadn't chased him with gold all day yesterday.
  • SheetFreakSheetFreak Registered Users, Member 89 Posts
    DFBB said:
    DFBB said:
    xracman said:
    DFBB said:
    I opened close to 800 tourney boxes last night. I took Mallex to g10, then p8, and box capped him. My first pull came at box #56. I once had 3 pulls in a span of about 8 boxes. I went over 300 with just one pull. It felt like it took forever to get him to d9 and d10. Ultimately, I wasn't far off the stated odds. 
    You played 3200 Tournament Games last night?
    We are not worthy.
    I had 566 boxes saved prior to the event. 
    whoa.whoa.whoa.




    So, If I play tourneys and don't open the boxes I win. The prizes change when the event ends??????
    It varies as far as when the boxes will change, but they will change to reflect the current tourney rewards. Most of those boxes, for example, I picked up when Carp was the tourney reward. 
    Oh God.

    This is a game changer for me lol. I never even thought about stashing Tourney win boxes......even with the variable of the prizes changing or not.

    Hehehe. Thanks.
  • SheetFreakSheetFreak Registered Users, Member 89 Posts
    DFBB said:
    DFBB said:
    xracman said:
    DFBB said:
    I opened close to 800 tourney boxes last night. I took Mallex to g10, then p8, and box capped him. My first pull came at box #56. I once had 3 pulls in a span of about 8 boxes. I went over 300 with just one pull. It felt like it took forever to get him to d9 and d10. Ultimately, I wasn't far off the stated odds. 
    You played 3200 Tournament Games last night?
    We are not worthy.
    I had 566 boxes saved prior to the event. 
    whoa.whoa.whoa.




    So, If I play tourneys and don't open the boxes I win. The prizes change when the event ends??????
    It varies as far as when the boxes will change, but they will change to reflect the current tourney rewards. Most of those boxes, for example, I picked up when Carp was the tourney reward. 
    Oh God.

    This is a game changer for me lol. I never even thought about stashing Tourney win boxes......even with the variable of the prizes changing or not.

    Hehehe. Thanks.
  • retirepujolsretirepujols Registered Users, Member 3,875 Posts
    Oh God.

    This is a game changer for me lol. I never even thought about stashing Tourney win boxes......even with the variable of the prizes changing or not.

    Hehehe. Thanks.
    Royale tourney boxes > woh 🙃
    "It's amazing how much work you can put in without gangly-ass legs in the way" - Sir Tdub71
  • RodFarvaRodFarva Registered Users, Member 107 Posts
    edited May 22
    Oh God.

    This is a game changer for me lol. I never even thought about stashing Tourney win boxes......even with the variable of the prizes changing or not.

    Hehehe. Thanks.
    Me, too.  I'll be starting my stash now.
    Thanks DFBB/retirepujols!
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