How many boxes do I have to purchase to get the best player?
Keek
Registered Users, Member 11 Posts
Hi everyone,
I read a lot of discussions about the box odds and chasing the best player out of it. I decided to provide a small table, which answers this question.
Marked in the table is the number of Baseball's Back boxes you have to purchase to be 95% sure to get Juan Soto.
The formula is log(1-percentagesure)/log(1-percentageplayer).
You have a 1.2% chance to get Soto in a single box; it follows log(0.05)/log(0.988)=248.14. You have to purchase 249 boxes for a 95% chance to get him, which equals 149,400 gold.
Hope it helps everyone, who is chasing a player.
I read a lot of discussions about the box odds and chasing the best player out of it. I decided to provide a small table, which answers this question.
Marked in the table is the number of Baseball's Back boxes you have to purchase to be 95% sure to get Juan Soto.
The formula is log(1-percentagesure)/log(1-percentageplayer).
You have a 1.2% chance to get Soto in a single box; it follows log(0.05)/log(0.988)=248.14. You have to purchase 249 boxes for a 95% chance to get him, which equals 149,400 gold.
Hope it helps everyone, who is chasing a player.
3
Comments
Yes, we are aware of the game having crashing issues in the middle of WoH, but we can't compensate you for the gold you lost at this time. This is done on a case by case basis. - TSB Customer Service
This is the complaint (or outrage) that GLU doesn't seem to understand. This isn't a gripe about being unable to land a player, this is pointing out that GLU REPEATEDLY has near mathematically impossible scenarios with their loot boxes.
I suspect that like their video system, their coding for boxes is equally broken
Yes, we are aware of the game having crashing issues in the middle of WoH, but we can't compensate you for the gold you lost at this time. This is done on a case by case basis. - TSB Customer Service
but my understanding is that the math on this would be 73/100 x 73/100....36 times
is that correct?
so we’re talking a .0012% chance?
I wish I could trade him Yelich and Alonso for that 150k gold! I barely have enough pxp to get 1 of them to like D2 at 60% discount...which I won’t be doing, lol. Just leveled them to B10 to score some points and hope for a repull 🤷♂️
My gold stash is down to just below 100K now bc of "crap luck" trying to get Soto, Yelich, Etc.
The guy above that said grinders are getting screwed this year isn't lying. Took almost 100K gold yesterday to get Yeli. LOL
I'm at the point with the game that I just don't care. I laughed as I pulled Anderson 37 times during that fiasco. At one point, I pulled Anderson 6 times in a row. I got Bieber 5 times, Saegar once, then finally Yeli. It was a hoot.
I'll likely blow the rest of it later next week, wait for the next inevitable bait and switch, game crash, or whatever, then get my money back. This vacation last week was what the good Doc needed to break this habit.
Double gold grinding to keep me hooked? Nope, that's not working either as the ads won't load or they crash. LOL. CS won't care.
Yes, we are aware of the game having crashing issues in the middle of WoH, but we can't compensate you for the gold you lost at this time. This is done on a case by case basis. - TSB Customer Service
Yes, we are aware of the game having crashing issues in the middle of WoH, but we can't compensate you for the gold you lost at this time. This is done on a case by case basis. - TSB Customer Service
21% odds at ANY player in Western Division Box. 13 boxes in, just one single player on the pity timer.
Over and over and over. Just magically defying all mathematical odds with every single new box release.
EDIT: Make if 15 straight now
So last week I hit a .0012% odds. Wednesday was a 4.2% odds, and today I'm 2.9% odds to open 15 without hitting a player. I welcome anyone to tell me how this is possible without artificially manipulating the pulls.