Probability Calculator

jmsorioles33

Hey guys,

With all the talk around box odds, I figured I would repost this thread that I started on the 2020 forum.

Here is a link to a really simple calculator you can use that only requires 3 inputs (“success” probability, number of trials and how many successes you need, typically 1):
https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

And here’s a simple example using the 500g Ryan box from yesterday, which had him at 1% odds.

How to read these outcomes, using 1% odds (.01), 100 boxes, with a goal of 1 success:
-you have about a 37% chance of getting him exactly once
-you have a 36.6% chance at not getting him at all
-you have a 73.6% chance of getting him 0 or 1 time
-you have a 26.4% chance at of getting him 2+ times
-you have a 63.4% chance at getting your guy 1+ times (the inverse of the 36.6 whiff %)

I hope this is helpful and not too depressing. Please feel free to comment if you have any questions or if I can explain anything better. Good luck!

dkarski87

That's awesome, thanks JMS.. Yes its very F.Kin depressing see that btw.

JEDDDOGGY

LOL yah 1 percent is depressing let alone 0.2 percent 

jalapenocubbies

weird, when I plugged in the weekend 250 box is just said “bring the lube”