When you know better and still do it

RainOnMyParadeRainOnMyParade Registered Users, Member 117 Posts
So I know to never chase a player.  Why do I do it anyway?  I really wanted Yaz from yesterday's box.  First I bought 60 with gold (15k in gold) and got 1 Cesar Hernandez , 1 Minor.  I bought 3 of the 29.99 specials 90 boxes and got 2 minors.  I bought 2 of the 9.99 specials 24 boxes and got no players.  So out of 174 boxes. 1 cesar and 3 minor and of course no Yaz.  Its that fallacy that it has to be in the next box and that you are due, when in reality you have the poor odds the entire time.  I think what pushes me is when I look at my schedule and I say I have a lot of time to play, so I want to make it worthwhile  and glu says "no soup for you".
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Comments

  • Cooz19Cooz19 Registered Users 1,256 Posts
    Did anyone get Yaz? He was clearly a player non-spenders like myself aren't allowed to have, but the box was a reasonable deal if you want bxp at a discount. I got Hernandez, and 15 bxps on 16 boxes. 
  • xracmanxracman Registered Users, Member 666 Posts
    edited June 2021
    I got him from a free box.  I was surprised because last week I was on a roll (Moncado, Polanco, Goldschmidt, Trout, Devers,,,)  so I expected to be put into a timeout.  But pulled Yaz, Wendle and Donaldson.  I'm sure my run is over now.

    And I am not a big spender, bought FP for first time because I pulled Trout early on Friday, never spend on the big ticket specials.
  • jalapenocubbiesjalapenocubbies Registered Users, Member 1,057 Posts
    @RainOnMyParade sincerely sorry to hear those stories. I’ve done it many times myself and feel bad when it happens to anyone. 

    It’s my opinion this sort of thing should never happen. If you spend/buy enough boxes you should eventually get the top prize. I’m not saying it stood be cheap but at .8% odds, for the amount of boxes you opened he should have bee. Guranteed at like 120 boxes 
  • whynotwhynot Registered Users, Member 1,749 Posts
    Sorry man but ya really got to stop chasing those inside straights!
    I'm confused by what you mean by 5.7 and 5.8.  You mean the round and level? 
    - Blueleopard
  • Cooz19Cooz19 Registered Users 1,256 Posts
    It’s my opinion this sort of thing should never happen. If you spend/buy enough boxes you should eventually get the top prize.  
    xracman said:
    I got him from a free box. I was surprised because last week I was on a roll (Moncado, Polanco, Goldschmidt, Trout, Devers,,,)  so I expected to be put into a timeout.
    This is more evidence to show the boxes aren't any more random than the pitch sequence you're going to see in WOH are random.It's how the game simultaneously keeps us chasing the white dragon and maintains a certain level of balance.

    The odds are the results of the distribution they've already established before the boxes go public. When Bucket A doesn't give out as many of Player X as the odds suggested, they throw them in free boxes. That way, someone HAS to get the player. But if you aren't in the right bucket, you can buy/acquire 176 boxes and not get the player (their own odds say that should have yielded 1.5 Yaz pulls. Obviously not a guarantee, but I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess of others who purchased that many boxes, more than not got him at least once). 
  • jalapenocubbiesjalapenocubbies Registered Users, Member 1,057 Posts
    Cooz19 said:
    It’s my opinion this sort of thing should never happen. If you spend/buy enough boxes you should eventually get the top prize.  
    xracman said:
    I got him from a free box. I was surprised because last week I was on a roll (Moncado, Polanco, Goldschmidt, Trout, Devers,,,)  so I expected to be put into a timeout.
    This is more evidence to show the boxes aren't any more random than the pitch sequence you're going to see in WOH are random.It's how the game simultaneously keeps us chasing the white dragon and maintains a certain level of balance.

    The odds are the results of the distribution they've already established before the boxes go public. When Bucket A doesn't give out as many of Player X as the odds suggested, they throw them in free boxes. That way, someone HAS to get the player. But if you aren't in the right bucket, you can buy/acquire 176 boxes and not get the player (their own odds say that should have yielded 1.5 Yaz pulls. Obviously not a guarantee, but I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess of others who purchased that many boxes, more than not got him at least once). 
    I just think it’s a result of terrible box odds. I don’t get into the crazy box theories I’ve heard. Every box is independent so the odds remain the same. I just think odds suck so bad this happens far too often. They have the ability to give us a gurantee player who isn’t some scrub 340 player, they just choose not to right now.
  • Cooz19Cooz19 Registered Users 1,256 Posts
    edited June 2021
    I'd agree if I didn't pull a player with less than 1% odds three times on the first or only free box I received. 
  • xracmanxracman Registered Users, Member 666 Posts
    Cooz19 said:
    I'd agree if I didn't pull a player with less than 1% odds three times on the first or only free box I received. 

    Sometimes you're the windshield, sometimes you're the bug.
  • DFBBDFBB Registered Users, Moderators, Member, Moderator 6,602 Posts
    So I know to never chase a player.  Why do I do it anyway?  I really wanted Yaz from yesterday's box.  First I bought 60 with gold (15k in gold) and got 1 Cesar Hernandez , 1 Minor.  I bought 3 of the 29.99 specials 90 boxes and got 2 minors.  I bought 2 of the 9.99 specials 24 boxes and got no players.  So out of 174 boxes. 1 cesar and 3 minor and of course no Yaz.  Its that fallacy that it has to be in the next box and that you are due, when in reality you have the poor odds the entire time.  I think what pushes me is when I look at my schedule and I say I have a lot of time to play, so I want to make it worthwhile  and glu says "no soup for you".
    According to the math,174 boxes gave you about a 75% chance of getting Yaz at least once. I've been there and it's no fun. In fact, it absolutely sucks. Yesterday, I was intent on getting the potw Ohtani(i didn't need him, but i kind of like the guy). It took me 20 freaking boxes. 

    As far as box theories are concerned, I always entertain ideas that are financially beneficial, but it doesn't dictate how I play. 
    If you're not having fun, you're losing.
  • jalapenocubbiesjalapenocubbies Registered Users, Member 1,057 Posts
    Cooz19 said:
    I'd agree if I didn't pull a player with less than 1% odds three times on the first or only free box I received. 
    The thing is, I’m sure I can name examples this year but last year I pulled Mickey mantle on my 4th box, I almost spent 270k to get babe Ruth. I just think the odds are terrible and it’s completely random. I never play my holder, and I r spent nothing on it, and I can’t pull shit from all the free boxes they give and from cvc. So I have experience from a spending team to a job spending non active team. I just think the way they have it setup it, it’s going to take you a long time to get a guy. To me it’s the fact they have the option to correct that but haven’t yet. I’m hopeful it gets added as we get to legends and ATGs. They really need a gurantee on the top prize, not the secondary one, but I guess anything better than the useless 330-340 players currently. 
  • RainOnMyParadeRainOnMyParade Registered Users, Member 117 Posts
    DFBB said:
    So I know to never chase a player.  Why do I do it anyway?  I really wanted Yaz from yesterday's box.  First I bought 60 with gold (15k in gold) and got 1 Cesar Hernandez , 1 Minor.  I bought 3 of the 29.99 specials 90 boxes and got 2 minors.  I bought 2 of the 9.99 specials 24 boxes and got no players.  So out of 174 boxes. 1 cesar and 3 minor and of course no Yaz.  Its that fallacy that it has to be in the next box and that you are due, when in reality you have the poor odds the entire time.  I think what pushes me is when I look at my schedule and I say I have a lot of time to play, so I want to make it worthwhile  and glu says "no soup for you".
    According to the math,174 boxes gave you about a 75% chance of getting Yaz at least once. I've been there and it's no fun. In fact, it absolutely sucks. Yesterday, I was intent on getting the potw Ohtani(i didn't need him, but i kind of like the guy). It took me 20 freaking boxes. 

    As far as box theories are concerned, I always entertain ideas that are financially beneficial, but it doesn't dictate how I play. 
    I've had those bad runs on POW and POM too.  Those really get you because the odds are better of getting a player so it has to be in the next box, right.  I wish I wasn't so stubborn and I set a limit before opening boxes.  I knew Yaz wasn't guaranteed, but the fact that the odds gave you 6.8 percent chance of getting a player and I got players 2.3 percent of the time really made it disheartening.  I figured I had a large enough sample size to even things out (174 boxes).  I know how things roll for me, I'll get a top player eventually, but it will be when I have no time to play.  
  • Cooz19Cooz19 Registered Users 1,256 Posts
    edited June 2021
    Or, @RainOnMyParade, you'll get him when there's 4 hours left in the event. 

    I just assume I'm not getting a top player, spend enough to get the 3 free boxes and go from there. As @Thunderstormer said, sometimes I'm the bug, sometimes I'm the windshield. Or sometimes I'm the dog, sometimes I'm the fire hydrant. 

    The Pitcher's Predicament box can derelict my balls though. 

    p.s. This suggests it is NOT random. 

    I just think the way they have it setup it, it’s going to take you a long time to get a guy.


  • MoenPOSMoenPOS Registered Users, Member 14 Posts
    I find it odd that when I pull the top guy during any given week, I can never gets one the next week. I always get every other reward regardless of how many boxes are opened. And I usually get him on the first few. Coincidence? maybe. Something screwy? More likely than not
  • LooseballsackLooseballsack Registered Users, Member 45 Posts
    I took 8 days off of playing the game hoping it would increase my chances, ha didn’t affect it one bit!! I’ve now opened 42 POTM boxes and pulled Rogers twice and that’s it. Took me over 30 boxes just to get him the first time, can somebody say rigged boxes??
  • mythicaldragonmythicaldragon Registered Users, Member 2,418 Posts
    With no trace of lxp so far and a bump around the corner… how far do you all think we are from legends dropping? Legends Usually drop at 430 overall 
  • BigpredfanBigpredfan Registered Users 3,306 Posts
    whynot said:
    Sorry man but ya really got to stop chasing those inside straights!
    This is 100% truth here. I am 19 days TSB sober, but I am really rocking the poker right now. Open ended straights or flushes are the way to go
  • JEDDDOGGYJEDDDOGGY Registered Users, Member 2,460 Posts
    With no trace of lxp so far and a bump around the corner… how far do you all think we are from legends dropping? Legends Usually drop at 430 overall 
    I'll go with a bump to 415 sometime in 1st half of July and then legends in 1st half of August.
  • jalapenocubbiesjalapenocubbies Registered Users, Member 1,057 Posts
    With no trace of lxp so far and a bump around the corner… how far do you all think we are from legends dropping? Legends Usually drop at 430 overall 
    They were 480 last year I think. Wasnt Ripken the first legend weekend? He was 480. My guess is august at some point. 
  • mythicaldragonmythicaldragon Registered Users, Member 2,418 Posts
    With no trace of lxp so far and a bump around the corner… how far do you all think we are from legends dropping? Legends Usually drop at 430 overall 
    They were 480 last year I think. Wasnt Ripken the first legend weekend? He was 480. My guess is august at some point. 
    Ripken dropped on September 4th at 131 overall at bronze…. Whatever that would be? 
  • DFBBDFBB Registered Users, Moderators, Member, Moderator 6,602 Posts
    With no trace of lxp so far and a bump around the corner… how far do you all think we are from legends dropping? Legends Usually drop at 430 overall 
    They were 480 last year I think. Wasnt Ripken the first legend weekend? He was 480. My guess is august at some point. 
    Ripken dropped on September 4th at 131 overall at bronze…. Whatever that would be? 
    480.
    If you're not having fun, you're losing.
  • mythicaldragonmythicaldragon Registered Users, Member 2,418 Posts
    I guess it was 19 when lofton dropped at 430 in speed demon box or something like that. Anyway at least a month a way it seems 
  • dkarski87dkarski87 Registered Users, Member 3,040 Posts
    450 I think were the first legends that dropped last year.
    "Oops we need to restart! Yeap that's 2019 for ya!"
    – The Great Houmy
  • jalapenocubbiesjalapenocubbies Registered Users, Member 1,057 Posts
    dkarski87 said:
    450 I think were the first legends that dropped last year.
    It was 480. Believe it was 450 in 19. I just checked collections in 20 and they didn’t go believe 480. 
  • dkarski87dkarski87 Registered Users, Member 3,040 Posts
    so we get 2 more bumps to 440 primes, then legends come out. So im guesssing End of July.
    "Oops we need to restart! Yeap that's 2019 for ya!"
    – The Great Houmy
  • mythicaldragonmythicaldragon Registered Users, Member 2,418 Posts

    19 first legends were this guy and Fisk I think. Whatever 123 at bronze is 430? 
  • jalapenocubbiesjalapenocubbies Registered Users, Member 1,057 Posts

    19 first legends were this guy and Fisk I think. Whatever 123 at bronze is 430? 
    Believe it’s 450 
  • whynotwhynot Registered Users, Member 1,749 Posts
    edited June 2021
    Believe it was Shawn Green last year.  Or maybe he was just my first.  Regardless no lxp and never made active list but he brought color!
    I'm confused by what you mean by 5.7 and 5.8.  You mean the round and level? 
    - Blueleopard
  • Cooz19Cooz19 Registered Users 1,256 Posts
    OK I'm at the top of the pity timer for the Pitcher Predicament box. Someone please speak sense to me that there's no way that next box is anyone other than useless Kevin Newman. That's the only reason he's there; to be that terrible prize for opening 13 straight bxp boxes. 
  • JTANDMEJTANDME Registered Users, Member 767 Posts
    just wait for cvc @Cooz19 lol
  • DFBBDFBB Registered Users, Moderators, Member, Moderator 6,602 Posts

    19 first legends were this guy and Fisk I think. Whatever 123 at bronze is 430? 
    In case you didn't know. 123 x 3.66=450.
    If you're not having fun, you're losing.
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