I have been playing a lot of leagues and had accumulated a lot of draft picks. 13 #1 picks and 27 First Round picks. I made use of all the picks and actually kept track:
#1 picks
3 star players - 5
3.5 star players - 5
4 star players - 3
First Round Picks
2 star players - 6
2.5 star players - 3
3 star players - 7
3.5 star players - 6
4 star players - 5
So, in all, ZERO 4.5 or 5 star players out of 40 top picks. It does seem that spending actual gold on these type of picks would be counter-productive. I've been saving all gold for upgrades and that does seem like the right move. I think the only way to build a truly competitive team is to actually save your gold for months and use them during prime events. Unfortunate.
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I got one 5 star player out of 9 #1 draft picks I tried. It was J.D. Martinez. Was pure luck
imo, you're definitely better off getting the sure thing in a 3 star free agent then spending gold on a first round draft pick. since you need gold for higher upgrade levels it's probably best to not spend it on #1 picks either.