I dont know what kind of algorithm HoD uses to estimate % (if there is actually any) but its for sure totally broken.
I have failed 10 times in a row to upgrade a 40% item. Going by possibility the average would be something close to 3 times and anything above 5 times highly unlikely. The current failure rates I experience are just retarded and pay no respect to statistics.
This part of the game needs major improving.
A good way to make things better would be to increase the possibility of success by 10% after a failed attempt.
So if for example you fail 3 times to upgrade an originally 40% upgrade success item, the renewed % would be 70% for the 4th time etc etc.
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But, I would like to disagree with your analysis because it is possible to fail 10 time in a row with a 40% chance due to statistics. Its like flipping a coin. You can get heads 10 times in a row and it does not mean that the 50% chance to get tails is wrong or a person is cheating in flipping the coin. It is just that you have a small sample size to draw correct stats.
Let me tell you something. The large sample size works great if the upgrade does not cost you materials.
With the current material dropping rates, you cant afford to test the large size theory. If you fail 10 times on a 40% chance item you wasted materials it took you 8-10 missions to gather. And that's for a single item only!
If you would be getting the materials to fail 10 times in 1-2 missions I would not be here arguing.
Ya had a admin say that they are sure the randomizer works. Don't belive it.
I'v tried to get the Decimator III from level 7 to level 8 with a 15% chance for more then 30 times.
I think they know its borked and refused to fix it because, they get extra cash from this.
It seems that you suffered from bad luck. Just complete the last elite mission and got this legendary shield. Started to upgrade it and stopped at level 9! Failed about ten times at all, 7->8 and 8->9 failed only once!