Found an interesting -- if not slightly crude -- post from the past, and felt it was worthy of further discussion:
http://ggnbb.glu.com/showthread.php?205445-New-to-TSB-Looking-for-Advice
Jemic, a self-described long-time user of this series of games, noted the inclusion of a probability base which is randomly generated and capable of leveling the pregame advantage one side might have over another due to upgrades. Jemic also noted he played several games between a 5-star team with no upgrades and a 3-star team with "full" upgrades, and the 5-star upgrade-less team won 18 of 20. Jemic isn't clear on what exactly full upgrades means, but it's fair to assume it means ALL the upgrades. If that's the case, there clearly is not a huge advantage into getting them, except more as a defensive posture to help cancel out an opponent's upgrades on a per-game basis.
Many others extoll the virtues of buying draft picks, playing the odds that eventually you'll get a player worthy of inclusion in your lineup. While it doesn't seem valid to pin the question as if players vs. upgrades is a mutually exclusive decision -- you can have both, obviously -- the question is in priority when you get back that initial run through the 2-3 star levels.
Upgrades can/will eventually be cancelled out on a per-game basis. Sometimes they'll give you an advantage, sometimes they will not. Some players legitimately seem to have clouds over their heads or horseshoes up their ashes; I've seen guys with 5 Hit grossly outperform guys with 7 Hit.
When draft picks work in your advantage, early in the game, they're very helpful. When a 3-star player will no longer contribute for you, they seem to be a weak investment, outside of spending gold to get high-level players in Fan Rewards. So it seems like one could make the argument the most efficient way to build your team is to focus on gold spending in draft picks early, and when your bench consists of 3-star players, diving into upgrades is a wiser course of action (simply from a priority perspective, or, in a hypothetical choice between one or the other).
Whether or not this strategy is deemed valid will likely depend on the player's success with those draft picks. Since my team's draft strategy appears to be based in preparation for the game eventually allowing three shortstops to be on the field at one time (in 29 draft picks, I've selected a shortstop or middle reliever 15 times), I have not been particularly successful in the draft.
So really, from a logical standpoint, the issue lacks a wrong choice. Hindsight is the only true measuring stick to determine a correct answer, so in the moment, you could go either way, but both of them take you down a path that's determined by things out of your control. You don't pick your opponent, nor can you control the alleged probability base that exists. You can't decide who you draft, and there's (seemingly) no control in place to even prevent someone from getting several of the same attributed players who play the same position, essentially defining a wasted transaction.
What seems to be the best route, both logically and picked up anecdotally from members of this forum, is to maximize spending during Fan Rewards periods. Save up your gold and don't spend it except for when you can get back a player you won't be able to draft. From there, it doesn't seem to really matter what you spend the gold on, although simple sensibility suggests if you HAVE to spend gold, draft picks, especially when on sale, make plenty of sense (although when they're on sale you accumulate less gold toward your Fan Reward).
So, long diatribe short...logically, you have no control over the most important aspects of either draft picks or upgrades, but both are still necessary components to the game. It seems (and it's debatable) draft picks make more sense earlier in the game and a shift to a heavy focus on upgrades makes more sense after a team reaches roughly the 3-star level. Both are needed at all levels. Above all else, though, focusing gold spending on Fan Reward gives you one of the few transactions in the game that isn't left up to chance (and even then the players offered for Fan Rewards aren't in your control). You have no incentive to spend gold outside the Fan Reward periods.
My useless $0.02 . . . Please tell me how wrong I am.
Comments
I can't say I really track my team's errors in a game, and there are understandable 3-error losses here and there but by and large, it doesn't seem to be an issue, and I don't really put anything into defensive upgrades. It's just interesting cuz my pitching is exactly as you describe your errors.