ODDS OF PULLING TOP PLAYER, IMPOSSIBLE SAVE YOUR GOLD!!!!

Itsouttahere2Itsouttahere2 Registered Users, Member 551 Posts
Pulled the same piece of 💩 player 5 times, I’m done!!!! 🖕🏼 
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Comments

  • SheetFreakSheetFreak Registered Users, Member 89 Posts
    Lol
  • TheFullMonteTheFullMonte Registered Users, Member 1,262 Posts
    edited May 19

    This has been the theme all year.  Glu has altered the pulling algorithm, and as such, pull odds are drastically different than stated in the box odds.

    I'll say that they are using a system that has been employed by numerous mobile gaming companies and even casinos.  It's not "illegal" but its certainly misleading.

  • SheetFreakSheetFreak Registered Users, Member 89 Posts
    edited May 19
    I'm curious how people know they changed the pulling algorithm.

    This is simple stats class stuff.


    Everybody is aware that it's not a cumulative thing right? 
    If a player has a 5% chance of being pulled. It doesn't mean if you buy 20 boxes, you should pull him once.
    It means that every time you buy a box, you have a 5% chance of pulling him.

    On your 1000th box, you still only have a 5% chance to pull said player. Your odds don't get better with each box.
  • dkarski87dkarski87 Registered Users, Member 2,249 Posts
    Odds are the same always. You just have no rng luck. I pulled every players within 2500 gold yesterday, just how it goes sometimes.
    "Oops we need to restart! Yeap that's 2019 for ya!"
    – The Great Houmy
  • TheFullMonteTheFullMonte Registered Users, Member 1,262 Posts
    I'm curious how people know they changed the pulling algorithm.

    This is simple stats class stuff.
    I will caution you before you head down this rabbit hole that you are most likely drastically underestimating 1) the level that some of these people play at, and the complexity of the systems they utilize, and 2) the relevant experience and expertise of certain players in related fields. 
  • SheetFreakSheetFreak Registered Users, Member 89 Posts
    I'm curious how people know they changed the pulling algorithm.

    This is simple stats class stuff.
    I will caution you before you head down this rabbit hole that you are most likely drastically underestimating 1) the level that some of these people play at, and the complexity of the systems they utilize, and 2) the relevant experience and expertise of certain players in related fields. 
    I also don't underestimate the "systems" that hundreds of thousands, maybe millions, of people play the lottery too.
    As humans we have an incredible ability to convince ourselves of silly things.

    Unless you have the actual hard copy of the programming behind the app and can show it, it is nothing more than conjecture.
    I could pull the best player 5 times in a row. Unlikely? yes. But that doesn't mean the RNG algorithm was changed.
  • AirAssaultAirAssault Registered Users, Member 103 Posts
    Sometimes I get excited about the possibility of getting an elite player from a box...then I look at the odds of actually getting him and laugh at my own stupidity.
  • SheetFreakSheetFreak Registered Users, Member 89 Posts
    last weekend I bought, including the field pass, 25 boxes. I did not get a single 5 star player.
    Target bash, I won one game. 4 boxes. I got 3, 5 star players.

    The idea that they are changing the algorithms around etc is crazy talk. This is basic gambling, casino psychology.
    They KNOW that guys are going to have excel spreadsheets with years of data collected. That there may even be guys with programming knowledge who have made their own apps or programs to track stuff.
    They don't need to change anything, because they know people will spend money regardless.
    there is no big conspiracy unless you have actual physical proof.

    Raising the cost or lowering the odds on some boxes. Raising the cost to auto a round in WOH. The laziness of making a 34 overall pitcher a beast in a late round of WOH instead of just putting in a pitcher with an equivalent rating to at least make the loss more visually appealing. These things we can see and clearly prove that they have made unfair changes for whatever reason.

    But the stuff about RNG and changing algorithms etc is straight up gamblers fallacy and conspiracy theory, put on your foil (hehehe) hat stuff.
  • DFBBDFBB Registered Users, Moderators, Member, Moderator 5,184 Posts
    FWIW, most people that do well don’t post so most of what we hear will be the ones that are getting crushed. For example, the last two weekends I’ve spent about 7k gold and I have both Trout foils, Didi foil, and the Bryant foil. I also know of a few others who have had crazy good luck too. 
    If you're not having fun, you're losing.
  • JPro2992JPro2992 Registered Users, Member 52 Posts
    I'm curious how people know they changed the pulling algorithm.

    This is simple stats class stuff.


    Everybody is aware that it's not a cumulative thing right? 
    If a player has a 5% chance of being pulled. It doesn't mean if you buy 20 boxes, you should pull him once.
    It means that every time you buy a box, you have a 5% chance of pulling him.

    On your 1000th box, you still only have a 5% chance to pull said player. Your odds don't get better with each box.
    This!!! I’ve been telling this exact thing to friends, club members and forum goers for years. Not many people understand that!!
  • dkarski87dkarski87 Registered Users, Member 2,249 Posts
    I also know a guy who spent 235k on Foil Bryant and didn't get him. lol
    "Oops we need to restart! Yeap that's 2019 for ya!"
    – The Great Houmy
  • DFBBDFBB Registered Users, Moderators, Member, Moderator 5,184 Posts
    edited May 19
    dkarski87 said:
    I also know a guy who spent 235k on Foil Bryant and didn't get him. lol
    At this point, I’m not sure who hasn’t heard that story. Lol. All jokes aside, man, that’s unreal. 
    If you're not having fun, you're losing.
  • mythicaldragonmythicaldragon Registered Users, Member 1,694 Posts
    last weekend I bought, including the field pass, 25 boxes. I did not get a single 5 star player.
    Target bash, I won one game. 4 boxes. I got 3, 5 star players.

    The idea that they are changing the algorithms around etc is crazy talk. This is basic gambling, casino psychology.
    They KNOW that guys are going to have excel spreadsheets with years of data collected. That there may even be guys with programming knowledge who have made their own apps or programs to track stuff.
    They don't need to change anything, because they know people will spend money regardless.
    there is no big conspiracy unless you have actual physical proof.

    Raising the cost or lowering the odds on some boxes. Raising the cost to auto a round in WOH. The laziness of making a 34 overall pitcher a beast in a late round of WOH instead of just putting in a pitcher with an equivalent rating to at least make the loss more visually appealing. These things we can see and clearly prove that they have made unfair changes for whatever reason.

    But the stuff about RNG and changing algorithms etc is straight up gamblers fallacy and conspiracy theory, put on your foil (hehehe) hat stuff.
    25 boxes is nothing... very common to not pull a 5* with 25 boxes and this year’s rng system. Have you ever opened 80 boxes and not pulled a 5*? 
  • dkarski87dkarski87 Registered Users, Member 2,249 Posts
    Just how it goes, some people get lucky.
    "Oops we need to restart! Yeap that's 2019 for ya!"
    – The Great Houmy
  • SheetFreakSheetFreak Registered Users, Member 89 Posts
    Does anybody know how many people there are actually on TSB?

    80 boxes and no 5 star?
    I bet in a weekend event there are thousands of boxes pulled without a 5 star being pulled.
    Mathematically possible that it could be one single guy pulling all of those empty boxes.

    Luck is a bitch.
  • retirepujolsretirepujols Registered Users, Member 3,679 Posts
    edited May 19
    dkarski87 said:
    I also know a guy who spent 235k on Foil Bryant and didn't get him. lol
    Jesus. That guy has a problem. 
    "It's amazing how much work you can put in without gangly-ass legs in the way" - Sir Tdub71
  • DFBBDFBB Registered Users, Moderators, Member, Moderator 5,184 Posts
    Does anybody know how many people there are actually on TSB?

    80 boxes and no 5 star?
    I bet in a weekend event there are thousands of boxes pulled without a 5 star being pulled.
    Mathematically possible that it could be one single guy pulling all of those empty boxes.

    Luck is a bitch.
    @mythicaldragonb Box #96 gave me my first five star player(reg belly) in the first weekend.
    If you're not having fun, you're losing.
  • BearmeatBearmeat Registered Users, Member 527 Posts
    It’s best not to break down the odds or mathematical likelihood of pulling a player.  You either pull them or you don’t. Nor do any of those posted odds really mean anything. I’m not sure why some people hold those odds as if it’s iron clad either. This IS Glu we’re talking about. 
  • DFBBDFBB Registered Users, Moderators, Member, Moderator 5,184 Posts
    JPro2992 said:
    I'm curious how people know they changed the pulling algorithm.

    This is simple stats class stuff.


    Everybody is aware that it's not a cumulative thing right? 
    If a player has a 5% chance of being pulled. It doesn't mean if you buy 20 boxes, you should pull him once.
    It means that every time you buy a box, you have a 5% chance of pulling him.

    On your 1000th box, you still only have a 5% chance to pull said player. Your odds don't get better with each box.
    This!!! I’ve been telling this exact thing to friends, club members and forum goers for years. Not many people understand that!!
    The difference is known values(opened) vs unknown(i.e if I buy 'x' amount of boxes). 
    If you're not having fun, you're losing.
  • ToughthundercatsToughthundercats New Member Registered Users, Member 1,029 Posts
    I see it as sometimes you go through a bad spell and then out of no where you are pulling foils. You have to keep grinding and eventually the fortune will swing your way. I think people are reading into this way to much. At the end of the day it's a freaking video game. 
  • mythicaldragonmythicaldragon Registered Users, Member 1,694 Posts
    DFBB said:
    Does anybody know how many people there are actually on TSB?

    80 boxes and no 5 star?
    I bet in a weekend event there are thousands of boxes pulled without a 5 star being pulled.
    Mathematically possible that it could be one single guy pulling all of those empty boxes.

    Luck is a bitch.
    @mythicaldragonb Box #96 gave me my first five star player(reg belly) in the first weekend.
    Jeeesh 👀🤢
  • mythicaldragonmythicaldragon Registered Users, Member 1,694 Posts
    dkarski87 said:
    I also know a guy who spent 235k on Foil Bryant and didn't get him. lol

  • navyjack77navyjack77 Registered Users, Member 1,200 Posts
    There are two known factors to this equation: (1)if you don’t open boxes, you won’t get a 5 star player (except WOH), and (2) the more boxes you open, the more likely you are to pull a 5 star player. It doesn’t mean your odds go up each box you do open, it will always be the same odds, but you can eventually beat the odds and win.
  • SheetFreakSheetFreak Registered Users, Member 89 Posts
    There are two known factors to this equation: (1)if you don’t open boxes, you won’t get a 5 star player (except WOH), and (2) the more boxes you open, the more likely you are to pull a 5 star player. It doesn’t mean your odds go up each box you do open, it will always be the same odds, but you can eventually beat the odds and win.
    This is the exact wrong statement.
    "the more boxes you open, the more likely you are to pull a 5 star player."

    You have the exact same odds to pull a 5 star player with every single box. Your odds do NOT get better the more boxes you open, unless it specifically states that you get a guaranteed 5 star player after 10, 15 boxes etc.

    1) if you don't open boxes, you won't get a 5 star player (except WOH)
    2) Opening boxes gives a chance better than 0 of getting a 5 star player.

    Saying "it will be the same odds, but you can eventually beat the odds..." is grade A gambling logic. It's simply not true. There is absolutely nothing that says you get a 5 star player the more boxes you open......i.e. 235k chasing a specific 5 star player. It may "feel" like you are beating the odds. But you are not.

    If you can't handle the stress of taking a gamble. Don't buy boxes. Save gold, spend it on other things in the game and play WOH to build your team.
  • navyjack77navyjack77 Registered Users, Member 1,200 Posts
    @SheetFreak I may have misspoke...If you don’t pull a player on the first box you buy, and you don’t buy any more boxes, you don’t get a player. If you buy one more box after that, you are more likely to pull a player than only buying one that didn’t contain said player. Yes, many gambling addicts say “just one more” thinking they will hit what they are looking to hit, but the bottom line is, if they don’t play that one more, they definitely won’t hit it, and that is what gets them. I do have an addictive personality, but I do know what the difference is.
  • SheetFreakSheetFreak Registered Users, Member 89 Posts
    @navyjack77
    I'm sure the majority of us, myself included, have that addictive personality lol

    I'm not preaching from some high horse here. As a BlueJays Fan I definitely chased Ryu HARD a month ago on Wed and Thurs. Spent thousands in gold, blew my gold savings on him. Got him with about 45 minutes left to go in the BG event. So he was useless essentially 45 minutes after getting him (although was still a solid pitcher for me. I only replaced him a week or so ago).

    I may get pissed off. But I'm self aware enough to know I just didn't stop when I should have. I'm not going to blame Glu for that.
  • navyjack77navyjack77 Registered Users, Member 1,200 Posts

  • sullipa8sullipa8 Registered Users, Member 299 Posts
    The problem isn't the box odds and if they are right or wrong. The real crime is the fact that the pity timer resets at a 4.5 star and can give you a 4.5 star when you hit the pity timer. I got screwed with that last weekend getting Vogt from the "pity timer". It's a slap in the face that they implemented that as a courtesy to players, but have reverted it to being worse than before the pity timer was implemented. 
  • whynotwhynot Registered Users, Member 987 Posts
    sullipa8 said:
    The problem isn't the box odds and if they are right or wrong. The real crime is the fact that the pity timer resets at a 4.5 star and can give you a 4.5 star when you hit the pity timer. I got screwed with that last weekend getting Vogt from the "pity timer". It's a slap in the face that they implemented that as a courtesy to players, but have reverted it to being worse than before the pity timer was implemented. 
    For this reason alone I try as hard as I can to not buy boxes.  Glu helps me because when I get weak they shove a useless 4.5 down my throat.
  • TheFullMonteTheFullMonte Registered Users, Member 1,262 Posts
    Bearmeat said:
    It’s best not to break down the odds or mathematical likelihood of pulling a player.  You either pull them or you don’t. Nor do any of those posted odds really mean anything. I’m not sure why some people hold those odds as if it’s iron clad either. This IS Glu we’re talking about. 
    Sooooooo…...you're saying the box odds are 50/50.  I like it.  Much better than we have today
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