Simple Probability Calculator

jmsorioles33

Hey guys,

In my four years playing TSB I’ve heard about tons of disappointment from players (myself included) related to buying tons of boxes only to come up empty on “the” player. After getting burned an embarrassing number of times I started to take a more calculated approach to chasing certain players. When considering a 5-figure gold spend hunting a certain player, I take a second to check the probability that i get my guy so I have a decent idea of how likely it is ill be tilted when my gold hits zero and i have nothing to show for it.

Here is a link to a really simple calculator you can use that only requires 3 inputs (“success” probability, number of trials and how many successes you need, typically 1):
https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

And here’s a simple example using the 500g Ryan box from yesterday, which had him at 1% odds.

How to read these outcomes, using 1% odds (.01), 100 boxes, with a goal of 1 success:
-you have about a 37% chance of getting him exactly once
-you have a 36.6% chance at not getting him at all
-you have a 73.6% chance of getting him 0 or 1 time
-you have a 26.4% chance at of getting him 2+ times
-you have a 63.4% chance at getting your guy 1+ times (the inverse of the 36.6 whiff %)

I hope this is helpful and not too depressing. Please feel free to comment if you have any questions or if I can explain anything better. Good luck!

Toughthundercats

jmsorioles33 said:

Hey guys,

In my four years playing TSB I’ve heard about tons of disappointment from players (myself included) related to buying tons of boxes only to come up empty on “the” player. After getting burned an embarrassing number of times I started to take a more calculated approach to chasing certain players. When considering a 5-figure gold spend hunting a certain player, I take a second to check the probability that i get my guy so I have a decent idea of how likely it is ill be tilted when my gold hits zero and i have nothing to show for it.

Here is a link to a really simple calculator you can use that only requires 3 inputs (“success” probability, number of trials and how many successes you need, typically 1):
https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

And here’s a simple example using the 500g Ryan box from yesterday, which had him at 1% odds.

How to read these outcomes, using 1% odds (.01), 100 boxes, with a goal of 1 success:
-you have about a 37% chance of getting him exactly once
-you have a 36.6% chance at not getting him at all
-you have a 73.6% chance of getting him 0 or 1 time
-you have a 26.4% chance at of getting him 2+ times
-you have a 63.4% chance at getting your guy 1+ times (the inverse of the 36.6 whiff %)

I hope this is helpful and not too depressing. Please feel free to comment if you have any questions or if I can explain anything better. Good luck!

By this all hope is not lost nor gained either.... So we are stuck where we started from.... A quote that is famously said by our very own @whynot "did someone say rigged boxes"

Bearmeat

Or an ever so familiar quote from @likenight-
Got (xxx bxp player/prime player) on pity box 4 times. This is ridiculous 
F U Glu
*Statement made with permanent dark cloud overhead *

Toughthundercats

Bearmeat said:

Or an ever so familiar quote from @likenight-
Got (xxx bxp player/prime player) on pity box 4 times. This is ridiculous 
F U Glu
*Statement made with permanent dark cloud overhead *

Love it 🤣🤣🤣

Piglet1899

Yes. It was depressing but I will cheer up when I think of how much gold I won’t be throwing away in future.