How many boxes do I have to purchase to get the best player?

KeekKeek Registered Users, Member 11 Posts
Hi everyone, 
I read a lot of discussions about the box odds and chasing the best player out of it. I decided to provide a small table, which answers this question.

Marked in the table is the number of Baseball's Back boxes you have to purchase to be 95% sure to get Juan Soto.
The formula is log(1-percentagesure)/log(1-percentageplayer).
You have a 1.2% chance to get Soto in a single box; it follows log(0.05)/log(0.988)=248.14. You have to purchase 249 boxes for a 95% chance to get him, which equals 149,400 gold.
Hope it helps everyone, who is chasing a player.
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Comments

  • drsmartassphddrsmartassphd Registered Users, Member 3,084 Posts
    accurate this year for sure. Im stashing gold just for specific chases. So far, I’ve targeted three guys. Each time I spent close to 60K to land them. Last year I always got it done with around 20-25K. 

    I tried chasing Soto and stopped at 40K last night. Whomp whomp

    Yes, we are aware of the game having crashing issues in the middle of WoH, but we can't compensate you for the gold you lost at this time. This is done on a case by case basis. - TSB Customer Service

  • TheFullMonteTheFullMonte Registered Users, Member 1,551 Posts
    edited July 2020
    I've opened 42 boxes since yesterday.  I've hit the pity timer (4) times now.  I'm not even sure how thats mathematically possible to dodge a 27% chance of a player 10 times in row, 4 successive times.

    This is the complaint (or outrage) that GLU doesn't seem to understand.  This isn't a gripe about being unable to land a player, this is pointing out that GLU REPEATEDLY has near mathematically impossible scenarios with their loot boxes.

    I suspect that like their video system, their coding for boxes is equally broken
  • drsmartassphddrsmartassphd Registered Users, Member 3,084 Posts
    Buy the $20 bundle later. You’ll likely get what you’ve been searching for.

    Yes, we are aware of the game having crashing issues in the middle of WoH, but we can't compensate you for the gold you lost at this time. This is done on a case by case basis. - TSB Customer Service

  • More2Most2FirstMore2Most2First Registered Users, Member 777 Posts
    FWIW, I’ve pulled Soto 4 times from about 130 boxes...but that’s easily the best luck I’ve had all year with the top player in a box.
  • fahhq2fahhq2 Registered Users, Member 850 Posts
    Keek said:
    Hi everyone, 
    I read a lot of discussions about the box odds and chasing the best player out of it. I decided to provide a small table, which answers this question.

    Marked in the table is the number of Baseball's Back boxes you have to purchase to be 95% sure to get Juan Soto.
    The formula is log(1-percentagesure)/log(1-percentageplayer).
    You have a 1.2% chance to get Soto in a single box; it follows log(0.05)/log(0.988)=248.14. You have to purchase 249 boxes for a 95% chance to get him, which equals 149,400 gold.
    Hope it helps everyone, who is chasing a player.
    I’m sure @likenight will skew the odds in everyone else’s favor🤣
  • whynotwhynot Registered Users, Member 1,607 Posts
    I haven’t pulled Soto either.  Of course that’s because I quit buying rigged boxes. 😁
    I'm confused by what you mean by 5.7 and 5.8.  You mean the round and level? 
    - Blueleopard
  • FrankTheTank04FrankTheTank04 Registered Users, Member 931 Posts
    Whaaaaaat?!?  Boxes are rigged??  Nope, glu would never do something like that.  They're such an upstanding company and always do the right thing!.. like double charge folks for product that's broken and tell them "no refunds, your fault"
    Still giving glu money?  That's the problem.  They'll never change if you don't.
  • KeekKeek Registered Users, Member 11 Posts
    I've opened 42 boxes since yesterday.  I've hit the pity timer (4) times now.  I'm not even sure how thats mathematically possible to dodge a 27% chance of a player 10 times in row, 4 successive times.....
    Say it in other words, you hit the 73% chance. Sounds more likely. The probability to hit a 73% 9 times in a row (which is equal to fail the 27% 9 times in a row) is 5.9%. The 10th box is a sure player. A full counter four successive times, means you hit the 73% 36 times in a row, which is an unlikely but possible scenario.
  • 2020KC2020KC Registered Users, Member 580 Posts
    Soto got Covid therefore his odds in the box went way down...there is your #tiltfactor.
    you can't spell deteriorate without detroit
  • superbaldy77superbaldy77 Registered Users, Member 143 Posts
    Glu can just make what they originally promised, make the pity timer the best player in the box and increase pity timer counts.
  • TheFullMonteTheFullMonte Registered Users, Member 1,551 Posts
    edited July 2020
    Keek said:
    I've opened 42 boxes since yesterday.  I've hit the pity timer (4) times now.  I'm not even sure how thats mathematically possible to dodge a 27% chance of a player 10 times in row, 4 successive times.....
    Say it in other words, you hit the 73% chance. Sounds more likely. The probability to hit a 73% 9 times in a row (which is equal to fail the 27% 9 times in a row) is 5.9%. The 10th box is a sure player. A full counter four successive times, means you hit the 73% 36 times in a row, which is an unlikely but possible scenario.
    @Keek I’ll ask this since you seem like you might understand how to calculate this.

    but my understanding is that the math on this would be 73/100 x 73/100....36 times

    is that correct?

    so we’re talking a .0012% chance?
  • Piglet1899Piglet1899 Registered Users, Member 193 Posts
    Decided not to chase Soto in that box. Was thinking of chasing Yelich. I’ve spent 23k plus I had the field pass boxes. Just seen that someone in my club has given up after spending 62k gold! Has anyone actually pulled Yelich?
  • bigmeatpetebigmeatpete Registered Users, Member 48 Posts
    Decided not to chase Soto in that box. Was thinking of chasing Yelich. I’ve spent 23k plus I had the field pass boxes. Just seen that someone in my club has given up after spending 62k gold! Has anyone actually pulled Yelich?
    I'm on 50k gold plus another 50 or so boxes. Haven't pulled yelich or alonso yet. Seager once. Bieber 9 times. 
  • Piglet1899Piglet1899 Registered Users, Member 193 Posts
    I’ve found someone who has Yelich. Unfortunately it’s the guy who is giving us a pasting in CvC 😐
  • likenightlikenight Registered Users, Member 471 Posts
    60 boxes, no Yelich or Alonso 
  • JEDDDOGGYJEDDDOGGY Registered Users, Member 2,367 Posts
    edited July 2020
    I've played 4 versions of this game and can tell you that the box odds are far lower/worse for teams that grind/spend and have a large gold balance, while odds are significantly higher for teams that are essentially inactive (try not logging in for 3-4 days and then tell me if you pull a prime).

    My bronze holder that I never log into and pretty much has less than like 500-1k gold at all times is loaded with primes from just free gifts. That thing pulls everyone and I can level them all too. It's arguably more fun than my diamond team, ha.
  • xracmanxracman Registered Users, Member 525 Posts
    Club mate bought the 3 special club offers plus all the gift boxes.  Pulled Yelich and Alonso (plus a bunch of other guys.)   I really want Alonso, but after pulling Soto, Realmuto and the other 3-4 primes this week spending only aroudd 5K gold for each of the fan rewards events, I know my luck has run out.
  • More2Most2FirstMore2Most2First Registered Users, Member 777 Posts
    edited July 2020
    JEDDDOGGY said:
    I've played 4 versions of this game and can tell you that the box odds are far lower/worse for teams that grind/spend and have a large gold balance, while odds are significantly higher for teams that are essentially inactive (try not logging in for 3-4 days and then tell me if you pull a prime).

    My bronze holder that I never log into and pretty much has less than like 500-1k gold at all times is loaded with primes from just free gifts. That thing pulls everyone and I can level them all too. It's arguably more fun than my diamond team, ha.
    I really just think it goes in waves...I had bad luck for most of June, but great luck in July. 🤷‍♂️

    I’ve only spent like 6k gold this weekend and I have everyone from the boxes, except Hiura and Kelly.  Goldschmidt (not pictured) is at Gold 2:


  • TheFullMonteTheFullMonte Registered Users, Member 1,551 Posts
    JEDDDOGGY said:
    I've played 4 versions of this game and can tell you that the box odds are far lower/worse for teams that grind/spend and have a large gold balance, while odds are significantly higher for teams that are essentially inactive (try not logging in for 3-4 days and then tell me if you pull a prime).

    My bronze holder that I never log into and pretty much has less than like 500-1k gold at all times is loaded with primes from just free gifts. That thing pulls everyone and I can level them all too. It's arguably more fun than my diamond team, ha.
    I really just think it goes in waves...I had bad luck for most of June, but great luck in July. 🤷‍♂️

    I’ve only spent like 6k gold this weekend and I have everyone from the boxes, except Hiura and Kelly.  Goldschmidt (not pictured) is at Gold 2:


    That’s wild.  I’ve got a friend that’s $200 and 150,000 gold in to chasing Yelich and Alonso and has neither
  • More2Most2FirstMore2Most2First Registered Users, Member 777 Posts
    @TheFullMonte

    I wish I could trade him Yelich and Alonso for that 150k gold!  I barely have enough pxp to get 1 of them to like D2 at 60% discount...which I won’t be doing, lol.  Just leveled them to B10 to score some points and hope for a repull 🤷‍♂️
  • drsmartassphddrsmartassphd Registered Users, Member 3,084 Posts

    My gold stash is down to just below 100K now bc of "crap luck" trying to get Soto, Yelich, Etc.

    The guy above that said grinders are getting screwed this year isn't lying. Took almost 100K gold yesterday to get Yeli. LOL

    I'm at the point with the game that I just don't care. I laughed as I pulled Anderson 37 times during that fiasco. At one point, I pulled Anderson 6 times in a row. I got Bieber 5 times, Saegar once, then finally Yeli. It was a hoot.

    I'll likely blow the rest of it later next week, wait for the next inevitable bait and switch, game crash, or whatever, then get my money back. This vacation last week was what the good Doc needed to break this habit.

    Double gold grinding to keep me hooked? Nope, that's not working either as the ads won't load or they crash. LOL. CS won't care.

    Yes, we are aware of the game having crashing issues in the middle of WoH, but we can't compensate you for the gold you lost at this time. This is done on a case by case basis. - TSB Customer Service

  • TheFullMonteTheFullMonte Registered Users, Member 1,551 Posts
    Last weeks Wednesday had the same 27.1% odds as today of landing at least ONE of the bonus players.

    I opened 36 straight boxes without pulling a single one.  

    Mathematical odds:  .0012%


    Today....I’ve pulled 1 guy in 10 boxes

    I’m so sick of this shit
  • likenightlikenight Registered Users, Member 471 Posts
    Yep Villar both times on my pity boxes. 
  • NotTodayNotToday Registered Users, Member 45 Posts
    I’ve joined the supply and demand club In 20. Since they are offering double gold every 2 weeks this year (I don’t remember this often in years past), they have made it much tougher to pull the top players. Thus, hoping people will actually spend more chasing in the long run. Jedi mind tricks at its best.    
  • BearmeatBearmeat Registered Users, Member 576 Posts
    Bonus Tip- If you want to land the Top Prime player in the box, don’t log in for a few days until you see one you want. Never fails. Inactivity is rewarded in this game
  • ScaryTerryScaryTerry Registered Users, Member 111 Posts
    No one has screenshotted the boxes this week. Oh well makes it easier not to log in...let me know when Kruk shows up
  • ScaryTerryScaryTerry Registered Users, Member 111 Posts
    Don't you start pulling on my mullet heartstrings
  • NotTodayNotToday Registered Users, Member 45 Posts
    I think Kruk took his ball and went home.  
  • drsmartassphddrsmartassphd Registered Users, Member 3,084 Posts
    If they make Kruk the WoH reward, you can bet your a$$ they will Kuck his hit rating and his power rating to make him useless.

    Yes, we are aware of the game having crashing issues in the middle of WoH, but we can't compensate you for the gold you lost at this time. This is done on a case by case basis. - TSB Customer Service

  • TheFullMonteTheFullMonte Registered Users, Member 1,551 Posts
    edited July 2020
    Last weeks Wednesday had the same 27.1% odds as today of landing at least ONE of the bonus players.

    I opened 36 straight boxes without pulling a single one.  

    Mathematical odds:  .0012%


    Today....I’ve pulled 1 guy in 10 boxes

    I’m so sick of this shit

    21% odds at ANY player in Western Division Box.  13 boxes in, just one single player on the pity timer.

    Over and over and over.  Just magically defying all mathematical odds with every single new box release.

    EDIT:  Make if 15 straight now

    So last week I hit a .0012% odds.  Wednesday was a 4.2% odds, and today I'm 2.9% odds to open 15 without hitting a player.  I welcome anyone to tell me how this is possible without artificially manipulating the pulls.
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