So I know to never chase a player. Why do I do it anyway? I really wanted Yaz from yesterday's box. First I bought 60 with gold (15k in gold) and got 1 Cesar Hernandez , 1 Minor. I bought 3 of the 29.99 specials 90 boxes and got 2 minors. I bought 2 of the 9.99 specials 24 boxes and got no players. So out of 174 boxes. 1 cesar and 3 minor and of course no Yaz. Its that fallacy that it has to be in the next box and that you are due, when in reality you have the poor odds the entire time. I think what pushes me is when I look at my schedule and I say I have a lot of time to play, so I want to make it worthwhile and glu says "no soup for you".
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And I am not a big spender, bought FP for first time because I pulled Trout early on Friday, never spend on the big ticket specials.
The odds are the results of the distribution they've already established before the boxes go public. When Bucket A doesn't give out as many of Player X as the odds suggested, they throw them in free boxes. That way, someone HAS to get the player. But if you aren't in the right bucket, you can buy/acquire 176 boxes and not get the player (their own odds say that should have yielded 1.5 Yaz pulls. Obviously not a guarantee, but I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess of others who purchased that many boxes, more than not got him at least once).
Sometimes you're the windshield, sometimes you're the bug.
As far as box theories are concerned, I always entertain ideas that are financially beneficial, but it doesn't dictate how I play.
I just assume I'm not getting a top player, spend enough to get the 3 free boxes and go from there. As @Thunderstormer said, sometimes I'm the bug, sometimes I'm the windshield. Or sometimes I'm the dog, sometimes I'm the fire hydrant.
The Pitcher's Predicament box can derelict my balls though.
p.s. This suggests it is NOT random.
– The Great Houmy
– The Great Houmy