Random bursts of luck in boxes/drafts

miggyrising

@Metsicans You tell me. It's certainly not random. So, if it's not random, by definition it's planned. 

In my honest opinion, I believe GLU uses a non-random algorithm. I couldn't tell you all of the inputs they use to feed that algorithm. But, it seems fairly reasonable to conclude that they include, at least to some extent, the following:

1. The age of the team. Teams that have been formed more recently seem to routinely get much better draws from Draft Picks and Loot Boxes. This would make sense from a Bait and Switch model. Give newer users the false sense that getting great players will be very easy. 

2. The level of the team. Bronze teams seem to get better draws than higher levels. This is consistent with their Bait and Switch model as well. After getting newer users hooked on routinely getting great pulls, those users start to feel the itch to level up to Silver with their great rosters. Starting at the Silver level, those great pulls are less and less frequent until they start to shut down completely. At that point, users have to rely on increasingly expensive resources to keep pace with the competition. 

3. Team Strength. On my main account, I was still able to pull quality players from boxes and draft picks right up until my team strength reached 70k as a Silver. Since then, I've played nearly a month with the same roster. Every PotW box I've opened has been XP. 15 straight. Every gift box has been either XP or a 3.5 star player. I noticed the same thing on my Gold account that I leveled up too quickly. For awhile, my team strength was significantly higher than most other Gold teams. Then, the draft picks and box results started drying up quite noticeably. 

4. Account dormancy. I stopped playing my Gold Level team after about a month of getting shut out of loot boxes and draft picks. I had already leveled up most of the roster to Gold 10. I saw no reason to keep at it. I had already started a backup team on a different device. That team was getting far better pulls. And, that team could still compete in Slugfest. So, I stopped playing the Gold team for nearly 6 weeks. I'd pull it up every once in awhile to open gifts or to see how far I could get in walk off without spending any gold. But, my usage and spending on that account went down significantly enough that I started getting "Welcome Back" gifts when I logged in. About 3 weeks ago, after I got my first Welcome Back gift, I also pulled a new player for my roster. In fact, after nearly 3 months of playing the same roster because I hadn't gotten a 5 Star plus player since Memorial Day, I flipped almost my entire roster in 2 weeks. I went from having 22 5-star players on my roster to having a starting roster of all Prime players and Max 360 players. I know others who have experienced similar things. Almost like your account algorithm resets after a certain number of dormant days. 

I'm sure there are other factors in their algorithm.

Who knows? Maybe they do include a RNG at some point.

Maybe they use the algorithm to define the range of the RNG. When a team meets certain criteria, perhaps the RNG range is lower or higher. For example, with a new team, perhaps the RNG range is from 1 to 3. If the result from the RNG is equal to 2, the user gets the reward. With a higher level team, maybe that range expands to be from 1 to 5 or 1 to 7. If the RNG result is 2, the user gets the reward. It's technically still random, but it's clearly manipulated. 

Maybe it's not an RNG at all. Maybe they use a PRNG. That would be more likely than an actual RNG. With PRNGs, the string appears to be randomized, but actually uses a mathematical formula to produce a sequence of numbers. As long as you start from different points in the string each time, the outputs appear to be random. But, if you accidentally start at the same point in the string, you'll get a fully duplicate set of results. 

How GLU chooses to operate their backend is really their business. They don't have to divulge their system or algorithm to anyone. They probably shouldn't. If they did, someone would undoubtedly find a way to hack it and tell everyone what they did. Or, they would more easily be exposed for fraudulent claims and likely banned from the App stores. 

All I'm saying is what they're claiming and what is happening in the game are clearly not the same thing.

They repeatedly represent to users that the results of box pulls and draft picks is random. That's simply not true. If you could find the right person at GLU willing to do it for you, they could probably tell you whether or not your next draft pick or box pull would result in a Prime player or XP. They'd have to know where to find the algorithm for your account, but they could certainly do it if they had the technical know-how. 

In a truly randomized environment, they would be able to honestly say they would have no way of knowing those things because they hadn't been determined yet. 

buaya123

I have noticed the same thing, after having gone through starting three teams in three months. My second team is significantly stronger than my first team, purely because of the picks and gifts I received.

Tenwethe

@miggyrising To add to this, I feel that 'older' teams get more rare but useless picks from lesser boxes/drafts. Ever since I hit 70k silver, I've been pulling a bunch of five star players from everywhere: prime picks, #1, even first round. Yet I can't seem to replicate this luck with similar and sometimes even better odds when a prize would actually upgrade my team. I recently pulled my first weekend box player in two months after about 60 boxes. Yet I pull at least 1 and likely more five stars (usually the low ones like wood and pagan) who instantly get traded in. 

miggyrising

After a little more experimentation with some things, there's no legitimate way they can claim to use any form of randomness in determining who gets what prizes or players. 

As I pointed out in another post, their "random number generator" that Customer Service likes to claim is responsible for outcomes has synced for two of my devices. That means I get exactly the same draft picks and box pulls on both devices in exactly the same order. 

I decided to test this out using the Epic Moments Coins. If there was really was a sync, the awards under the 3 cards should be the same as well. Alas, they were. 

Here's where it gets interesting or disturbing depending on how you feel about it. After the first 5 Epic Coin picks, in which I chose exactly the same card on both devices, the results were indeed perfectly in sync. All 3 choices were exactly the same. So, I decided to see if I could use that information to pick the highest value choice on the next round. 

Nope. The 3 options were exactly the same again. But, I pulled the exact same reward even though I selected a different card. 

In other words, it doesn't matter which card you pick. You could pick the same card every single time or come up with some sort of algorithm yourself. You're going to get the same prize no matter what. 

The next time CS tells you there's a random number generator responsible for all of that, let me know. I have tons of screenshots to debunk that lie. 

fahhq2

I too experienced the same thing as each time a new Epic moments comes out, I always get the epic coin pick-regardless of where I pick. This happened on both my teams each and every time. I will say that sometimes this works out for my benefit. A couple weeks ago when Glu messed something up, they gave out Nolan Ryan boxes. I pulled him on both teams! Funny thing tho, is that I thought I found out the “right” way to click on those shaking boxes. LOL

bravesfanla

@fahhq2

The "right" way to click the shaking boxes? Do tell.

fahhq2

After the shake has completed one time, I click! LOL

Sandpipers

I wish the the luck experts would get on the same page, I've read 3 shakes, 14 shakes and now 1 shake... maybe if we played I'm All Shook Up in the background and picked our own number

Sandpipers

Picked up Prime Melky and Prime Pedroia off two blue freebie draft picks today...too bad they won't be leveled up at max 370 each. Got Kimbrel off Epic Moments today as well, he's in a queue waiting for me to get enough PXP for two other guys in front of him lol

forlornclamstamp

I pulled kimbrel off the moments by choosing the same box every time

jpuck6190

I have noticed somewhat of a pattern in moments. Could be totally random but i pulled kimbrel fairly easy this go around..... if you choise the “big” prize pick on your first pull after your free video pick one to the right. For example if i pull the far left pick and its 500xwhatever then after my free video i pick the middle box. Then right box and so on. Sorry if that doesnt make any sense. But i have completed every moments reward so far so im sticking with it. 

Sandpipers

There are for sure patterns to moments but they're not the same for every team/device (I have 3 accounts and have also done well on moments without using too many coins at the end). What I have also found is that the pattern may change from one "event" to the next, so you must watch carefully the first few rounds to get the new pattern confirmed and you'll be mostly ok after that. My experience anyway...

miggyrising

There is no way to change what reward you will get by choosing one box over another on Moments. 

I did a fairly extensive test on this when I noted that two of my 3 accounts had perfectly synced up somehow. Both accounts were receiving exactly the same draft picks and exactly the same rewards from Moments. 

Once I noticed the so-called RNG-based selections were actually perfectly in sync with each other, I decided to try it out using the Moments. Both accounts had well over 100 Epic Coins, so I knew I could get a really decent sample size.

I would click on the middle Moment Card for one account then click on the middle Moment Card for the other account. As expected, I received exactly the same reward each time. The two rewards I didn't receive were exactly the same as well. I did this 25 Epic Coins from each account. Every time, the result was exactly the same on both accounts despite everything being different about the accounts. One is actually an iOS app and the other is on an Android device. 

On the 26th selection, I decided to use the information from the first selection to make a better selection the second account. I figured if I knew where the 50x NL Moment was, it would be silly to continue to select the same card knowing that it was a 5x Braves Moment.

So, I picked my the middle card on my first account. It was a 5x Braves Moment. The left card was a 20x MLB Moment. And, the right card was a 50x MLB moment. 

Using this information, I decided to select the right card on my second account to get the 50x MLB Moment. 

Nope. I got a 5xBraves Moment. The left card was now the 50xMLB and the middle card was the 20xMLB. 

So, I went back to picking the middle card on both accounts. For the next 25 picks, everything was perfectly in sync again. I decided to repeat the earlier experiment. The results were similar. I picked the card under which the highest value Moment had been located. That Moment had moved and I received the exact same prize again.

The cards seems to simply be a fun way to make people think they have some measure of control over the outcome. They don't. 

Just pick the middle card every time. Or pick the right card. Or the left card. Or do whatever you want. It won't change your reward at all. 

Sandpipers

All three of my devices show a different set of rewards from each other almost every time I perform my daily picks in epic moments. Same goes when I'm able to perform the video bonus picks. The patterns I referred to in my previous post tend to hold true for most of the event. None of it is 100% but there's a noticeable pattern that I follow quite successfully.
When it comes to boxes and drafts picks the patterns are generally universal, at worst 3 out of 3 devices showing the same results time after time, at best 2 out of 3 showing the same bad results. I doubt everyone is getting the exact same thing, rather I think there are clusters or groups of people that are getting the same results, it's just that there are several different clusters. My opinion.

miggyrising

@Sandpipers My best guess (complete stab in the dark) is that the developers use a PRNG to create a set of strings. Those strings are of a finite length, but can be iterated to virtual infinity, if necessary. The rewards are tied to certain values (or even substrings). 

For example, the PRNG could be constructed to pseudo-randomize 0,1 into a string of 256 characters. To receive a specific prize, the user would have to hit on a substring with exact value of (1,1,1,1). They would receive another value if their landing spot on the string started a substring of (1,0,0,0) and another value if it started (1,0,1,0) etc. 

To further give the illusion of randomization, they could use an algorithm to determine the specific string to be used in determining the reward. Perhaps they have 8 strings loosely based on the user's usage statistics. Brand new accounts use String 1. Mature bronze accounts use String 2. Recently leveled Silver accounts use String 3. Something similar. 

When a user taps a reward area on their screen, they are simply sent to the next point in the appropriate string. 

While it gives the illusion of being random at times, it's easy to see how such a system could be created to create that illusion. And, as people spend more and more time interacting with the strings, they start to sense patterns. 

But, in all actuality, while they can sense the patterns, they probably can't do anything to change the outcome of those patterns. 

(BTW, I would actually use a non-base 2 substring length instead of a base 2 length. That would give me a shift when I iterated the strings giving a further impression of randomness.)

Sandpipers

@miggyrising I'm completely with you on the question of randomness, or rather lack of it the majority of the time, and I like your best guess presented above, seems to fit the various scenarios we face in all aspects of the app including actual game play. As users, when we "win" a scenario we are content and forget about it, when we lose repeatedly we get frustrated and question what's going on and begin to watch things closely. Suffice it to say a large percentage of us have spent way too many hours in the app and have noticed patterns because we're unhappy the majority of the time with the results we get. The large number of screw ups that occur on a weekly basis or simply poor decisions that are implemented in a haphazard manner by the company are like throwing gasoline on an existing fire.

Metsicans

By the way, one pattern I've noticed in walkoff gameplay that might help you: if the pitcher throws a ball, but you swing, watch out for the next pitch.  It's almost always another ball.  I don't even think about swinging at the first pitch after a ball.  If you get a walk, I'm pretty sure the subsequent pitch sequence will always be such that the round is winnable.  So be patient....

Sandpipers

Yes, I've been caught swinging at balls and the sequence is determined to walk me even if I swing twice, so, third pitch will also be a ball and I take my base. Unfortunately the majority of the time, it's a set up for a double play no matter how I approach the next sequence of pitches. I know by now what will hapoen and do everything I can to avoid it but the majority of the time it's an automatic double play. I have learned that if I can foul off enough pitches in a row, I can sometimes eventually  get a different pitch to hit... of course fouling off repeatedly on purpose ain't so easy either lol.

Sandpipers

So after all the crap from yesterday and not getting the Knoblauch box after the fact (so far) I decide to blow my last little bit of gold and become a total f2p guy whenever I'm bored. Needed to watch a few videos to get me to 500g and then went and bought the Houston box.... and got Bagwell.... too funny.

nym5fan

Keep bragging on Bagwell @Sandpipers! lol. I am jelly over here. My run of NO luck with TSB has been over a month strong... It is far past ridiculous. But I play anyways and watch videos for gold etc. I won't spend a penny though. 

Sandpipers

Lol @nym5fan I think I must be in shock.... either that or the irony is just too much to pass over