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• The chance of failing a 40% upgrade 15 times in a row is .00047, or .047% (About 1 in 2000 chance). Even so, after you fail 15 times, there is still a 60% chance you'll fail on the 16th try. Conversely, the chance of failing a 10% upgrade 20 times in a row is 12.1% or about 1 in 8. So good luck getting any sympathy for…

  in fix item upgrade chance!! Comment by jacobbushong September 2013