My chase for Yogi...

2

Comments

  • cooldowncanadacubscooldowncanadacubs Registered Users, Member 643 Posts
    Marcuh said:
    Can someone show me the math on how you get 55 percent? 
    yeah...please show this Debby
  • cooldowncanadacubscooldowncanadacubs Registered Users, Member 643 Posts
    Let’s go Debby! @DFBB explain the “odds”. While you’re at it, define “expected”.  Use mathematics. Not probability. Not likelihood. Too many leaches on your word
  • retirepujolsretirepujols Registered Users, Member 3,646 Posts

    "It's amazing how much work you can put in without gangly-ass legs in the way" - Sir Tdub71
  • cooldowncanadacubscooldowncanadacubs Registered Users, Member 643 Posts

    Fück off Pujols. I’ll send you a sticker
  • cooldowncanadacubscooldowncanadacubs Registered Users, Member 643 Posts
    For those who are unaware of the definition of odds, I highly suggest you read the link posted above....
  • eman0023eman0023 Registered Users, Member 156 Posts
    CvC ❤️
  • MoenPDCMoenPDC Registered Users, Member 615 Posts
    I spent just a little over 91k AND cipnrewads before I bought a 4.99 special and pulled him
  • MarcuhMarcuh Registered Users, Member 227 Posts
    MoenPDC said:
    I spent just a little over 91k AND cipnrewads before I bought a 4.99 special and pulled him
    Now I’m going to have to test my luck with a little 5 buck chuck 
  • baseball2020baseball2020 Registered Users, Member 151 Posts
    MoenPDC said:
    I spent just a little over 91k AND cipnrewads before I bought a 4.99 special and pulled him
    Thanks. It makes me feel a little better knowing not everyone who got him pulled him from an admin gift or a cvc box. I’m over $400 and 40,000 in gold chasing this guy. I just know Glu is sitting back and laughing...
  • nwaredstar77nwaredstar77 Registered Users, Member 222 Posts
    Odds, probability, and likelihood are 3 terms that are often interchangeable in our vocabulary. Yet they are 3 entirely different things altogether. Only 1 of them has true mathematical merit. That term is “odds”. The other 2 aren’t actual. This is why people lose they’re homes, and some get filthy rich. Both also come from the gambling industry. 
    First time I'm seeing this side of you, look at you flexxing them brain muscles! Loving it though, and all good info that all tsb need to learn so they stop chasing rental guys. 
  • baseball2020baseball2020 Registered Users, Member 151 Posts
    DFBB said:
    First off, if you’ve pulled this guy, congrats!

    I have achieved VIP status chasing this guy and have even made it to All Star 11! I’ve also spent nearly 30,000 in gold buying the weekend boxes and the boxes from yesterday. This has got to be one of the most expensive chases in Taps history for one player right? 

    I honestly feel if I were given a box with a 99% chance to land him, I still wouldn’t get him, lol. However I’m almost certain I will pull him in the final minutes of the last event he is a bonus. I guess time will tell. The chase continues...
    I've spent 71k for Ted(also picked on Jackie on the way to Ted), 92k for Lou, 43.5k for Hank, and 75k for Yogi. I've also spent a considerable amount chasing a repull, but so far, no dice. Fwiw, no ATGs via gifts/cvc so far. GL to you man. It will happen!
    I appreciate it. This makes me feel a lot better. I guess the ones that say they’ve pulled him from CVC are the few lucky ones lol
  • JdotChristopherJdotChristopher Registered Users, Member 390 Posts
    Marcuh said:
    40 yogi boxes at 2 percent chance per box. Anyone know what the odds of pulling him out of 40 boxes comes out to? 40 ish percent? 
    Still 2%.  Each pull has the same odds as the previous pull. Picture putting 20 red balls in a jar with 980 blue balls. You could in theory land all 20 red balls in a row, but unlikely. You can also land 980 blue balls in a row. Also unlikely. But entirely possible. Odds don’t stack in such a vast pool. 
    Win or lose, this game always gives me blue balls!
  • MattattackMattattack New Member Registered Users 1,490 Posts
    Well if you are feeling lucky and dont mind dropping cash, the 40 Yogi box/$99 deal is live
    Just bought it and...I pulled three!!!

    Alex Bregman that is. Are you kidding me??

    Ive spent $160 today and 10,000 gold. I think Glu is just trolling me now. I’ve opened up 101 total boxes just today. This is nuts!!

    Ugh sorry man.   I know two others that bought it and also didnt pull him.  Brutal, theres still time tho so hopefully he shows up for you
  • MarcuhMarcuh Registered Users, Member 227 Posts
    DFBB said:
    Marcuh said:
    40 yogi boxes at 2 percent chance per box. Anyone know what the odds of pulling him out of 40 boxes comes out to? 40 ish percent? 
    Expected odds are 55%.
    How the hell did you come up with that figure?
    I think you’re just a little confused. We are talking about the odds of pulling him out of 40 boxes with each box being 2 percent odds. We know that the od
  • drsmartassphddrsmartassphd Registered Users, Member 2,017 Posts

    Here is some fun:

    What are the odds of pulling an ATG on a pity timer.

    Your odds increase here, just by how much?

    “Stop being a Debbie Downer, grow a sack and go Plat”, MoenPDC

  • benny100benny100 Registered Users, Member 713 Posts
    I dont think the legend or atg odds change on a pity timer - just the prime that increases to fill the void 
  • ShoveItUpYoenis2ShoveItUpYoenis2 Registered Users, Member 952 Posts
    benny100 said:
    I dont think the legend or atg odds change on a pity timer - just the prime that increases to fill the void 

    This is my understanding as well, although with most things in this game I don’t think anyone knows for sure...not even the customer service reps. 
  • MattattackMattattack New Member Registered Users 1,490 Posts

    Here is some fun:

    What are the odds of pulling an ATG on a pity timer.

    Your odds increase here, just by how much?

    They dont increase nor do regular legends.   The extra percent is just added to the primes
  • DFBBDFBB Registered Users, Moderators, Member, Moderator 4,902 Posts

    Here is some fun:

    What are the odds of pulling an ATG on a pity timer.

    Your odds increase here, just by how much?

    Here's an example of what Matt mentioned.

    A box has:
    15% primes
    5% legends
    1% atg
    19% bxp player
    20% lxp
    20%pxp
    20% bxp

    If the pity timer is due, then it now becomes:
    94% primes
    5% legends
    1% atgs

    There have been pity timer boxes/guarantees that have been issued in the past and those numbers are consistent with the example above.
    Mi casa es su casa...except during cvc. 
  • baseball2020baseball2020 Registered Users, Member 151 Posts
    Bought the Like Mike Pack for $19.99 which includes 10 boxes and.... no such luck!

    Might as well spend the $49.99 on the Hump Day Deal and try with 20 boxes and....wait for it.........


    At last!



    Might be losing my house, car, wife and kids, but at least I have Yogi! Oh this guy was a pain!!
  • drsmartassphddrsmartassphd Registered Users, Member 2,017 Posts
    benny100 said:
    I dont think the legend or atg odds change on a pity timer - just the prime that increases to fill the void 
    Ah. Ok. That makes sense and I did not know that.

    “Stop being a Debbie Downer, grow a sack and go Plat”, MoenPDC

  • nwaredstar77nwaredstar77 Registered Users, Member 222 Posts
    benny100 said:
    I dont think the legend or atg odds change on a pity timer - just the prime that increases to fill the void 
    Ah. Ok. That makes sense and I did not know that.
    Same, kinda sucks that they don't increase the odds a little for an atg or legend, but it makes it that much more... Lenedary... When you get one 😁
  • TheFullMonteTheFullMonte Registered Users, Member 1,125 Posts
    My entire paradigm of landing ATG’s is just screwed.

    when they first released Jackie...I landed him (4) times in a 30 box weekend special I bought. Then landed him a 5th time that weekend in CVC

    then I landed Ted the first weekend he was out. And despite buying far more boxes recently than I was back then...I have landed even one of the other guys


  • Killer0fMenKiller0fMen Registered Users, Member 11 Posts
    First of all, you guys trying to do the math, ARE SO WRONG, my advice, take a statistics course, the chance resets on every box you guys, so the chances to pull him start with the total overall number of boxes you buy. I am not going to go through it all, but you need much more complex math. Next, best bet is dump, clear your game cache many times daily, so the game AI cant use your data to figure player odds

    "There can be only one..."
    .        -The Highlander 
  • More2Most2FirstMore2Most2First Registered Users, Member 555 Posts
    Here is the part that everyone should read from the previously posted link:


  • MetsicansMetsicans Registered Users, Member 865 Posts
    Does anyone know how much longer Yogi is likely to be a bonus guy?  Just got him today and am wondering if he's worth all that LXP. 
  • FrankTheTank04FrankTheTank04 Registered Users, Member 783 Posts
    Metsicans said:
    Does anyone know how much longer Yogi is likely to be a bonus guy?  Just got him today and am wondering if he's worth all that LXP. 
    Just buy some of those expensive colossal lxp boxes that are in the store right now.  I bought one, it was the 60k, so I'm done buying them.
  • retirepujolsretirepujols Registered Users, Member 3,646 Posts
    Metsicans said:
    Does anyone know how much longer Yogi is likely to be a bonus guy?  Just got him today and am wondering if he's worth all that LXP. 
    I would assume at least 2 weeks since Hank is still around. 2 weeks from when the 2B enters the boxes should be Yogis departure 
    "It's amazing how much work you can put in without gangly-ass legs in the way" - Sir Tdub71
  • ShoveItUpYoenis2ShoveItUpYoenis2 Registered Users, Member 952 Posts
    2nd box of $2.99 special, 1.75 box turn before opening. 


Sign In or Register to comment.